Rigged Before the Vote — days to the midterms

A documented record · Updated October 22, 2026

Rigged before
the vote.

In 2020, they tried to overturn an election after losing it. The pattern documented here runs the other direction: change who counts the votes, who certifies them, who can cast them, and who is watching — before a single ballot is cast.

Below: 71 documented election-interfering actions. Every fact is sourced, every opinion is labeled, and the unprecedented and the unlawful are flagged as such, with the basis stated.

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Days until Nov 3, 2026
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Documented instances of Trump publicly undermining trust in American elections. 7 from the 2020–2025 record, in the prehistory · 14 in the 2026 record — . Counted per documented entry, so this is conservative: CREW alone logged 500+ Truth Social posts repeating 2020 conspiracy claims. Criteria in Method.

“The taking of democracy does not occur in one fell swoop; it is chipped away piece-by-piece until there is nothing left.”

U.S. District Judge David O. Carter, dismissing a DOJ voter-roll lawsuit, January 2026

How to read this page

Facts and takes are separated. On purpose.

The facts

Every card below documents an action with dates, names, and direct quotes, and links to its sources — 444 citations across major outlets, court records, and official statements, including right-leaning outlets where they covered the story. If a claim is contested or single-sourced, the card says so. We would rather publish nothing than publish something wrong.

Our take

When we editorialize, it looks like this block: labeled, set apart, and easy to skip. Here is our take, up front: taken together, this record describes a sustained effort to decide the 2026 midterms before they are held. You do not have to accept that conclusion — the sources are all here. Read them and decide for yourself.

Where things stand

The scoreboard

Each of the 71 documented actions carries a status. The proportions tell the story: most of this is not hypothetical.

26 In Effect 13 In Court 9 Threatened 21 On the Record 2 Blocked

The evidence wall

The record

Filter by category or status. Click any card for the full facts, our labeled take where we have one, and every source.

Category 71 / 71 shown
Status
Flags
In Effect Replacing the Referees Oct 19, 2026

The Offices That Watched for Foreign Election Interference Were Shut Down or Cut

On February 5, 2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi ordered that "the Foreign Influence Task Force shall be disbanded," ending the FBI unit created after Russia's 2016 interference. In April 2025 the State Department closed its office countering foreign disinformation, formerly the Global Engagement Center, and the intelligence director's restructuring cut the Foreign Malign Influence Center.

▸ 4 facts · 4 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • On February 5, 2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi ordered that "the Foreign Influence Task Force shall be disbanded," ending the FBI unit created after Russia's 2016 interference. In April 2025 the State Department closed its office countering foreign disinformation, formerly the Global Engagement Center, and the intelligence director's restructuring cut the Foreign Malign Influence Center.
  • The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which works with states to secure voting systems, lost nearly a third of its workforce by mid-2025, CBS News reported, and the 2027 budget proposes cuts that "could necessitate 900 additional layoffs," ProPublica reported. Arizona's secretary of state said the agency had "basically cut us off and left us on our own."
  • ProPublica, citing two former officials, reported that DHS political appointees asked the agency to "Secretly acquire a voting machine and hack it" without telling the manufacturer; the request was not carried out. That account has not been independently confirmed.
  • The White House says "President Trump has done more than any other President to ensure we have free and fair elections."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Foreign interference in American elections is not a partisan worry; the FBI unit Bondi disbanded was built after Russia's 2016 operation. Taking apart the offices that watch for it, in the run-up to a midterm, leaves states with less warning and the public with fewer independent referees.

Sources

In Court The Voter Data Dragnet Oct 13, 2026

The Justice Department Gives California 48 Hours to Set Aside Ballots of Voters on an Unexplained Noncitizen List

On October 13, 2026, Acting Deputy Attorney General R. Trent McCotter asked California's secretary of state and Los Angeles County's registrar to "segregate — not cancel — those individuals' vote-by-mail ballots" for people on a list, delivered on a password-protected thumb drive, of those the administration "believes are likely noncitizens." He gave them 48 hours, or the department would "have no choice but to seek emergency relief."

▸ 9 facts · 14 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • On October 13, 2026, Acting Deputy Attorney General R. Trent McCotter asked California's secretary of state and Los Angeles County's registrar to "segregate — not cancel — those individuals' vote-by-mail ballots" for people on a list, delivered on a password-protected thumb drive, of those the administration "believes are likely noncitizens." He gave them 48 hours, or the department would "have no choice but to seek emergency relief."
  • The letters do not explain how the list was built or how many names it contains, Politico reported. Experts told the Los Angeles Times the demand is "legally questionable." In Nevada, DHS cut an initial claim of 15,900 noncitizen registrants to 185 it said it had confirmed, which Nevada officials disputed, CNN reported.
  • The Justice Department's position: "This should not be controversial, as the criminal statute is clear: only American citizens may vote in federal elections."
  • California did not comply. Los Angeles County Registrar Dean Logan said, "We cannot withhold or refuse to count ballots based solely on unverified allegations," and Secretary of State Shirley Weber called it "an emergency of the DOJ's creation." Attorney General Rob Bonta noted the flagged count had fallen from the 190,000 DHS flagged over the summer: "What happened to those 170,000? They just got those wrong."
  • On October 15 the Justice Department sued in United States v. California (C.D. Cal.), describing "a list of over 20,000 names." In an October 16 letter McCotter warned officials who knowingly count such ballots of "becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime." That evening Trump posted: "They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!"
  • On October 19 the department charged 28 green card holders in California, mostly with lying on naturalization applications, some with fraudulent registration; 11 were arrested. "Each of the 28 defendants charged today appears on the list of more than 20,000 likely noncitizen registrants we provided to California election officials last week," McCotter said. Not all are accused of voting.
  • The same day the department asked the court to order the ballots held, calling its list "the floor." Los Angeles County told the court that in a sample of names on the list, "25.8% of the sampled voters record a place of birth in the United States." No ruling had been issued as of October 20.
  • A Los Angeles County declaration says that among sampled records with a meaningful birthplace, 38.9 percent listed the United States. Acting Deputy Attorney General R. Trent McCotter said, "There may be some names on there who it turns out ultimately are citizens," and, "We're not perfect," CalMatters reported.
  • On October 20, 2026, the Democratic Senate, House and governors' committees, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and the Nevada Democratic Party sued Trump, the Justice Department, Blanche, DHS and Mullin in federal court in Washington (DSCC v. Trump), asking the court to enjoin federal demands that states purge voters, withhold ballots, or segregate and not count them, and to stop threats against election officials. No ruling yet.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Setting aside a ballot is not canceling it, and the department is right that noncitizens may not vote. But the list has shrunk from 190,000 to about 20,000 without anyone outside the government being able to check it, and the president has now said the officials who count those ballots will go to jail. Election officials are being told to choose between a court process and a prison threat.

Sources

Threatened Force at the Polls Sep 24, 2026

The FBI Director Won't Commit to Keeping Agents Away From the Polls

At a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on September 15, 2026, Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Kash Patel, "Can you commit to this committee that you will not send FBI agents to the polls on Election Day?" Patel said the FBI "will follow the law," and asked whether deploying agents there would be contrary to law, said, "I don't know that we can't legally do it."

▸ 6 facts · 9 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • At a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on September 15, 2026, Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Kash Patel, "Can you commit to this committee that you will not send FBI agents to the polls on Election Day?" Patel said the FBI "will follow the law," and asked whether deploying agents there would be contrary to law, said, "I don't know that we can't legally do it."
  • Earlier, Sen. Amy Klobuchar asked whether he knew of the Justice Department's long-standing guidance that FBI agents cannot conduct investigations inside polling places on Election Day. Patel answered, "I'm aware."
  • Later, Sen. Peter Welch read him Rep. John James's claim that "my friend Kash Patel" had said the FBI would have a presence in Michigan leading up to Election Day. Patel pointed to election crimes coordinators in all 56 field offices, "so you bet we're going to have them there," then called the suggestion that he had contradicted himself "just another lie."
  • Patel did agree, when Sen. Alex Padilla asked, that the FBI has no plans to seize ballots, voting machines or other election material in the midterms. Democracy Docket and Roll Call noted that federal law prohibits armed federal officers at election sites. No FBI clarification of his remarks was reported.
  • On the evening of September 23, 2026 the Democratic Party committees sued. DSCC, DCCC, the Democratic Governors Association, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries filed against ICE, DHS, the FBI and their directors in federal court in Washington, pleading the Administrative Procedure Act and Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act. It is the third suit in that courthouse on these theories. Their argument is that a written order is not needed for the harm to exist: "dispatching armed federal agents to the polls, or even threatening to do so, is forbidden by federal law," because "voters need not actually be arrested, questioned, or even approached in order for such threats to intimidate them from exercising the franchise." The complaint says the policy "chills voting everywhere, not only where ICE and FBI agents actually appear." The one document it points to is one nobody outside government has read: a withheld ICE file titled "Checklist for Law Enforcement Voter Integrity 9.15.25 - FINAL DRAFT." ICE says a records request turned up 11,103 potentially responsive documents needing about 22 months to process, which is well past the election. No emergency motion has been filed and no judge had been assigned.
  • On October 15, 2026, Sens. Alex Padilla, Dick Durbin and Sheldon Whitehouse wrote to Attorney General Todd Blanche that Patel's sworn pledge not to seize ballots before certification is limited because "the FBI Director reports to the Attorney General, so his commitment is contingent on your own," and asked for written answers by October 29. The Justice Manual's own text shows a rule already loosened: "The Consultation Requirement is suspended while revisions are ongoing," dated June 2025, which suspends the requirement that prosecutors consult the Public Integrity Section before overt steps in election-crime cases.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Patel did not announce a deployment, and the card does not claim one. What he declined to do is the thing a director who intended no presence at the polls could have done in one sentence. Paired with an FBI that has already seized 2020 ballots in Fulton County and knocked on the doors of Wisconsin election officials, the refusal to say no is itself the signal voters will hear.

Sources

On the Record Redrawing the Maps Sep 23, 2026

The Redistricting War Has Moved 34.8 Million Americans Into New Districts

A September 17, 2026 report by the nonprofit Protect Democracy found that 34.8 million people, about one in ten Americans, now live in a different congressional district than they did during the 2024 cycle. About one-fifth of Americans live in a district where more than a quarter of the electorate is new.

▸ 4 facts · 11 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • A September 17, 2026 report by the nonprofit Protect Democracy found that 34.8 million people, about one in ten Americans, now live in a different congressional district than they did during the 2024 cycle. About one-fifth of Americans live in a district where more than a quarter of the electorate is new.
  • Both the Associated Press and Democracy Docket trace the origin to Trump. AP wrote that the battle "began when Trump urged the Republican-controlled legislature in Texas, the second most populous state, to redraw its congressional map to help the party." California responded in kind and the practice spread; Democracy Docket counts at least nine states that have redistricted since 2024.
  • Redrawing maps between censuses is legal but was close to taboo. Per Pew Research, in the past 50 years a state redrew its map outside the normal ten-year cycle only twice before this round.
  • Missouri shows how unsettled the maps were. The state held its August primaries under the 2025 map drawn at Trump's urging; the Missouri Supreme Court ruled on September 3 that it could not be used in November; and on September 21 an Eighth Circuit panel ordered it used anyway. On September 25 the U.S. Supreme Court stepped in for the third time, with no noted dissents: "In short, as a matter of state law, the 2022 map—not the 2025 map—must be used in the 2026 congressional election." It added, "The election is not merely upcoming; it has already started." The AP reported that more than a million potential Missouri voters, nearly 1 in 4, were shifted between districts during the fight. Trump responded: "The Supreme Court of the United States will just not let Missouri have an Election Victory."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Gerrymandering is old and bipartisan. What is new is the tempo. When maps can be redrawn any time the party in power wants a better result, the district stops being a place and becomes a bid, and the voter stops choosing the representative. Protect Democracy calls it a doom loop; the arithmetic is that one in ten Americans had their district changed between elections without moving house.

Sources

In Court Replacing the Referees Sep 18, 2026

Six Weeks Before the Election, Trump Barred Three News Organizations From the White House. A Judge Ordered Them Back.

On September 18, 2026 Trump posted that "effective immediately, I am banning Fake News CNN, MSNOW... and Politico... from the White House as a result of their constant 'reporting' FAKE NEWS!" He ended: "Other Fake News Media Outlets to follow." In the Oval Office, asked what the ban would look like, he said, per the Roll Call Factbase transcript: "Oh, the ban on the free press, right? Uh, a very simple ban. I don't want them in my office. I don't want them here. I would say the ban would go as far as you can."

▸ 12 facts · 30 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • On September 18, 2026 Trump posted that "effective immediately, I am banning Fake News CNN, MSNOW... and Politico... from the White House as a result of their constant 'reporting' FAKE NEWS!" He ended: "Other Fake News Media Outlets to follow." In the Oval Office, asked what the ban would look like, he said, per the Roll Call Factbase transcript: "Oh, the ban on the free press, right? Uh, a very simple ban. I don't want them in my office. I don't want them here. I would say the ban would go as far as you can."
  • The next morning it was carried out. Hard passes were deactivated and physically confiscated at the security kiosk. Three named reporters and at least two camera operators were turned away, and CBS News witnessed part of it. None of them received written notice or a reason. Written notice came in letters dated September 22, one day after the outlets sued.
  • Under Sherrill v. Knight, the 1977 case governing White House credentials, access cannot be denied based on the content of coverage, and any denial requires notice, a chance to respond and a decision in writing. Trump cited no specific article and said the ban could be lifted if the outlets "could straighten themselves out." Asked whether it would survive court review, he said, "I don't think that a court should allow fake news to be written day after day after day."
  • On September 21 the three outlets said they were filing suit that day in federal court in Washington on due process and First Amendment grounds; the case, Cable News Network, Inc. v. Trump, No. 1:26-cv-03287, was filed that day and assigned to Judge Timothy J. Kelly, a Trump appointee who ruled for CNN in the 2018 Jim Acosta pass case. The night before, at 10:55 p.m., the White House removed CNN as the next day's television pool network, including Trump's trip to the U.N. General Assembly. That morning Trump gave a rationale he had not used before, writing of what he calls the fake news, "It is a threat to our National Security, and must be stopped, NOW!"
  • The other networks declined to replace CNN. Fox News's Washington bureau chief, who chairs the television pool, told members that "effective today, the TV pool will not be covering events designated as pool coverage of the President," and that "There will be no replacement pool put in place." Fox News Media, ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News said jointly, "No administration should restrict a news organization because it objects to its reporting." Print, radio and photo pools continued, and the networks kept covering open events with their own crews.
  • Before the judge had ruled, Trump wrote that Kelly "was, sadly, appointed by 'TRUMP.' In other words, almost without question and, as usual, we'll go for appeal." The White House published a defense titled "White House Access Is a Privilege, Not a Right." Photographers for the Washington Post, the New York Times, AP, Reuters, Getty and AFP held their pictures of his September 21 events, and NPR said it would not use White House audio. That evening the White House launched "Trump TV," a 24-hour stream of its own past clips, which opened with a two-month-old speech at Mount Rushmore.
  • In court on September 22 the Justice Department argued that "access to the White House is a privilege—not a right." On the 1977 case it did not argue compliance. It argued "that decision is wrong and should be overruled," and said the same of a 2020 appeals-court decision that built on it. The White House's letters to the outlets, emailed that night, gave notice that the passes had been revoked, and the brief called that "sufficient post-deprivation process." On September 23 the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, the White House Correspondents' Association and 49 news organizations, Fox News Network among them, filed a brief calling the stated reasons "transparently viewpoint discriminatory."
  • On September 24 Judge Kelly granted a temporary restraining order and directed that the passes be restored immediately. To the argument that the precedents were wrongly decided, the order answers: "Maybe—but this Court is bound by D.C. Circuit precedent, full stop." He found that "[N]othing in the record that predates this suit suggests that the revocation of Plaintiffs' hard passes was motivated by national security concerns." Reporters from all three outlets were turned away that morning despite the order. After the judge demanded an answer, the White House filed a sworn timeline, and CNN and MS NOW journalists were admitted at noon, Politico's that afternoon. The order runs fourteen days, to October 8, and the outlets' motion for a preliminary injunction is due September 28.
  • That evening CNN and MS NOW reporters were kept out of Xi Jinping's state-dinner arrival, an event open to pre-credentialed media, and the White House said the outlets "don't just get to have free rein into every part of the White House, every event, and every press call." The network television pool, suspended since September 21, resumed on September 25.
  • On September 26 the White House kept CNN, the scheduled TV pool network, off Air Force One for Trump's trip to a college football game, and on October 1 it dropped CNN from the pool again, for a trip to Texas and Oklahoma, though a rotation document released September 27 had assigned CNN the slot; no other network replaced it, Deadline reported. Judge Kelly's restraining order covers access to the White House grounds, not pool travel. Attorney General Todd Blanche on ABC: "It is a privilege and not a right to be there." Trump posted on September 26: "FAKE NEWS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!!"
  • On September 28 the three outlets asked Judge Kelly for a preliminary injunction to keep their access until the case is decided; the restraining order expires October 8. Their filing: "The White House's words and actions leave little doubt that it will immediately reinstitute a complete ban of CNN, MS NOW, and POLITICO if allowed the opportunity."
  • On October 5, Politico's turn as print pool reporter, the White House kept it off Air Force One for a trip to Nebraska, saying travel aboard the plane "is a privilege not a right." Other outlets declined to take the seat.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Election coverage is the part of the press's job that most directly touches this page's subject. Removing three newsrooms from the building six weeks out did not stop them reporting, and a court has put them back for now, as courts did in the two closest precedents. But the condition Trump attached is the part to keep hold of: the ban lifts if the coverage changes. That is not a dispute about access. It is a price quoted for favorable reporting during an election.

Sources

In Effect Replacing the Referees Sep 16, 2026

The International Observers Who Have Watched Every U.S. Election Since 2002 Say No Invitation Came

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has observed every U.S. federal election since 2002, always after an invitation from the sitting administration. With the midterms set for November 3, its election-monitoring office says the invitation has not arrived. "The Office sends a needs assessment mission upon receiving an invitation from the OSCE participating State where the elections are occurring," a spokesperson said on September 16, 2026. "We are currently waiting on that invitation from the United States."

▸ 5 facts · 5 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has observed every U.S. federal election since 2002, always after an invitation from the sitting administration. With the midterms set for November 3, its election-monitoring office says the invitation has not arrived. "The Office sends a needs assessment mission upon receiving an invitation from the OSCE participating State where the elections are occurring," a spokesperson said on September 16, 2026. "We are currently waiting on that invitation from the United States."
  • The obligation is mutual and comes from the 1990 OSCE Copenhagen Document, signed by 57 states. ODIHR begins with a needs assessment sent only once an invitation arrives, and in past cycles published that assessment far earlier than this. The absence was visible in July, when a commentary noted from ODIHR's public calendar that the midterms were listed with no assessment recorded.
  • This is an absence, not an announced decision. No U.S. official has said observers will not be invited, and the State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
  • On September 23 the OSCE's election office and Parliamentary Assembly called "The decision not to invite the OSCE to observe the 2026 mid-term congressional elections in the United States" regrettable and "not in line with the commitments" of the 1990 Copenhagen Document. A State Department spokesperson said the OSCE "should focus its limited resources on elections where it can have the greatest impact."
  • In October a White House official told Snopes that "American elections will be administered, participated in, and observed by American citizens." The White House did not deny declining to invite the observers.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

An invitation nobody sent is not proof of intent. But the United States spent two decades asking other countries to open their elections to the same scrutiny, on the theory that a government with nothing to hide has no reason to refuse. The silence is the whole story here, and it is a silence the State Department chose not to break.

Sources

In Effect Unprecedented Replacing the Referees Sep 16, 2026

The Attorney General Who Oversees Federal Election Law Is Campaigning for Republicans

Since his confirmation on August 8, 2026 by a 50-49 Senate vote, Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump's former personal defense lawyer, has praised the Republican candidate for governor of New York at a rally-style event on Long Island, spoken at the Republican Party's midterm convention, and on September 16 spoken at Trump's Gastonia, North Carolina rally for Senate candidate Michael Whatley. The day before, from the White House podium, he called Democratic concerns about artificial intelligence "nothing but an effort to influence the midterms."

▸ 5 facts · 5 sources ▾ Collapse

  • Since his confirmation on August 8, 2026 by a 50-49 Senate vote, Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump's former personal defense lawyer, has praised the Republican candidate for governor of New York at a rally-style event on Long Island, spoken at the Republican Party's midterm convention, and on September 16 spoken at Trump's Gastonia, North Carolina rally for Senate candidate Michael Whatley. The day before, from the White House podium, he called Democratic concerns about artificial intelligence "nothing but an effort to influence the midterms."
  • The New York Times reported that the principle of an apolitical Justice Department "took root after Watergate," when Richard Nixon's attorney general John Mitchell resigned to run his reelection campaign. Merrick Garland's 2022 memorandum barring political appointees from partisan activity was rescinded by Pam Bondi in March 2026, and the department fired its senior career ethics official, Joseph Tirrell, in July 2025.
  • Tirrell on what he would have advised: "That rally sounds like a Hatch Act violation to me, and I'd advise you not to do it." Former Attorney General Eric Holder: "It's unprecedented, and it's disgraceful." NYU legal ethics professor Stephen Gillers: "Any attempt to discipline him will fail."
  • The department says the conduct is lawful. It called a Public Citizen Hatch Act complaint over the Long Island remarks "baseless" and said the convention appearance "is legal (and has been approved by ethics)." No violation has been adjudicated.
  • In October, a memo from Assistant Attorney General Jolene Ann Laurie loosened the rules further, letting Senate-confirmed Justice Department appointees, including the attorney general, the FBI director and U.S. attorneys, speak at rallies, canvass and serve as party delegates "in their personal capacities," CBS News reported. The memo has not been published.

Why it's unprecedented: Former Attorney General Eric Holder called the convention appearance "unprecedented," and the New York Times traced the norm it departs from to John Mitchell's resignation after Watergate.

Sources

Blocked Ruled Unlawful Seizing the Machinery Sep 14, 2026

The Supreme Court Keeps the Post Office's Ballot-Refusal Rule Out of the Midterms

Under the rule implementing Trump's mail-voting order, USPS would deliver mail ballots only for states that hand over their voter lists 60 or more days before the election and put a unique tracking barcode on every ballot. USPS could refuse noncompliant ballots.

▸ 31 facts · 28 sources · our take ▾ Collapse

  • Under the rule implementing Trump's mail-voting order, USPS would deliver mail ballots only for states that hand over their voter lists 60 or more days before the election and put a unique tracking barcode on every ballot. USPS could refuse noncompliant ballots.
  • On June 24, Postmaster General David Steiner confirmed under oath that USPS would not deliver ballots for states that refuse to hand over voter rolls: "Under our proposed regulation? No."
  • A district judge blocked the rule in early July. On July 17, a three-judge appeals panel temporarily lifted that injunction, letting the rule advance while litigation continues.
  • Implementation must happen before mid-September, when ballot mailing begins. Missing barcodes or mismatched records could delay or void ballots, hitting elderly, disabled, and rural voters hardest.
  • On August 11, 2026, a federal judge in Massachusetts issued a preliminary injunction barring USPS from implementing Section 3 of the executive order for the November elections, finding the provision likely unconstitutional.
  • On August 21, USPS issued its final rule implementing that same section anyway, effective immediately, stating it will be implemented "immediately" for the November elections if the injunctive orders are lifted.
  • Plaintiffs in League of Women Voters of Massachusetts v. Trump moved to enforce the court's order, asking the court to confirm the rule "has no force or effect" before November and to bar USPS from taking "no implementation or preparatory steps" this year.
  • The Supreme Court's August 24 order lifted the other injunction, the June one covering the suing states. The August 11 nationwide injunction that reaches this USPS rule survives. Election law professor Rick Hasen expects the trial court to amend it to bar implementation of the now-final rule outright.
  • The rule requires election officials to submit each mail voter's name and address to a new USPS portal, along with unique Intelligent Mail barcodes assigned to the envelopes used to send and return that voter's ballot.
  • Postal officials and election administrators warned in late August that the timing invites mismatched barcodes, incomplete records and technical failures across thousands of local election offices, any of which could stop an eligible voter from receiving a ballot. The objection is operational, not ideological.
  • On August 26, 2026, states sued to block the rule, two days after the Supreme Court lifted the other injunction. USPS still cannot implement it for November 3, because the nationwide injunction was not before the Court.
  • On August 27, 2026, Judge Talwani did exactly what Hasen predicted: she granted a 14-day temporary restraining order blocking the final rule, in the League of Women Voters case and in a parallel state case, finding the challengers likely to win both on unconstitutionality and on USPS lacking authority to issue the rule at all.
  • Talwani noted the administration had not offered "any evidence regarding fraudulent absentee or mail-in voting," and wrote that the government's interest in "correcting an unsubstantiated problem through likely unconstitutional means is dwarfed by the overwhelming risk of pervasive disenfranchisement."
  • On the calendar, she found the states "have neither time nor funds" to redesign ballots, update election management systems, train staff on the USPS portal and upload voter data before the midterms, and that the administration gave "no reply" to the states' argument that compliance would be impossible for many of them.
  • A hearing on a longer-lasting preliminary injunction is set for September 3, 2026. The executive order's separate provision directing DHS to compile lists of eligible voters and send them to states was not blocked and remains in effect.
  • On September 1, 2026, Sen. Richard Blumenthal released a USPS official's account of how the ballot portal is being built. The whistleblower called the work "secretive, rushed, chaotic, and fundamentally flawed," said USPS compressed into weeks a system that normally takes nine months to a year, and said testing procedures for the platform were eliminated to meet deadlines described as impossible.
  • The operational detail that matters most: according to the account, if a state delivers a batch of 10,000 ballots and USPS cannot match a single one against the portal, USPS would refuse to mail the other 9,999 and expect the state to take the whole batch back to fix the one.
  • The official warned that "potentially millions of American voters may not receive their mail-in ballot this election cycle in a timely manner, or at all." Blumenthal's letter also alleges USPS kept building the portal while injunctions barred implementation, describing a "pattern of defiance of court orders." USPS has not publicly rebutted the technical claims.
  • On September 4, 2026, after a hearing the day before, Judge Indira Talwani replaced her August 27 temporary restraining order with a preliminary injunction. It blocks the mandatory Outbound and Return Federal Ballot Mail Envelope Standards, mandatory registration for the Postal Service Federal Ballot Mail Portal, mandatory voter enrollment in that portal, and parts of the Outbound Federal Ballot Mail Verification procedures. The plaintiffs are the League of Women Voters of Massachusetts and a multistate group led by California.
  • Talwani's reasoning was structural: "Congress has never delegated its Elections Clause power to the USPS." She found the rule "clashes with Congress's statutory scheme, and is unconstitutional where it intrudes not only on Congress's Elections Clause powers but also that power left to the States."
  • On the timing she wrote that implementation "less than seventy days before the November 2026 election threatens disenfranchisement of millions of United States citizens who seek to vote by mail," while "the record includes no evidence relating to fraudulent mail voting to support the rushed implementation of the Final Rule."
  • The administration moved twice in two days. On September 5 the Justice Department asked the First Circuit for a stay. On September 6 Solicitor General John Sauer took it to the Supreme Court, seeking a stay pending appeal and an administrative stay, describing the rule as imposing "only modest envelope-design and addressee-information requirements for federal-election ballots sent via U.S. Mail." Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson ordered responses by 4 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, September 9.
  • North Carolina and Alabama began mailing ballots as early as September 4, 2026, which is the clock the filings are racing.
  • On September 9, the day responses were due, Republican secretaries of state from Kentucky, North Dakota, South Dakota, Georgia, New Hampshire and Kansas, with Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson and 26 local election officials in Georgia and Utah, asked the Supreme Court not to let the rule take effect for the midterms. They took no position on its legality, only on timing: "late changes breed confusion, that confusion keeps eligible voters from voting, and that a chaotic election erodes confidence in the result," and "in many respects, the election is already underway." Federal law requires states to send ballots to military and overseas voters by September 19.
  • A Florida county previewed the envelope review. Leon County voluntarily submitted its outgoing ballot envelope, and on September 2 USPS rejected it because two lines were 0.236 of an inch apart instead of a quarter inch. After an initial denial on appeal, USPS approved the design on September 10. The county had used the same envelopes for tens of thousands of ballots in 2024 and the 2026 primary, and plans to mail roughly 32,000 ballots by Florida's September 24 deadline. Supervisor of Elections Mark Earley: "The chaos factor is the real problem."
  • On September 14, 2026, the Supreme Court denied the administration's request to let the rule take effect for November, saying "The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court's preliminary injunction." Justices Alito and Thomas dissented. Justice Kavanaugh wrote that the rule may fall within the Postal Service's authority, but that applying it in 2026 would be arbitrary and capricious "because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections." The order covers only this year's elections.
  • Shortly before, Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee in Washington, separately blocked the rule: "No statute grants the Postal Service the power to issue key parts of the Rule." He found the government "does not point to any record evidence that there will be significant fraud in the upcoming elections." Trump said the justices "are merely a shell of their original selves."
  • Trump's fuller post the next morning called the order "a big loss for Republicans, and America itself," saying it "makes cheating by the Radical Left 'Dumocrats,' on Mail-In Ballots, a much easier thing to do," and that "This Supreme Court is bullied and cajoled by the Radical Left." CBS News reported Trump himself voted by mail in Florida this year.
  • Attorney General Todd Blanche said the administration would comply, but that "President Trump's efforts to make sure that we have free and fair elections are not going to stop just in November or after or thereafter. So I expect you're going to see that work continue."
  • On September 17, 2026, Postmaster General David Steiner told the Associated Press the Postal Service had stopped building the system. "There's an injunction so we're not doing anything," he said. A memo to all postal employees the previous day said the agency would "not be enforcing any of these new rules in the 2026 federal election," and that "First and foremost, for Election Mail it is business as usual."
  • Steiner said he had planned to launch the citizenship-check portal around September 15. He also said the Postal Service will keep pushing states toward barcoded ballot envelopes in future cycles through pricing rather than a mandate: "If you use the barcode in the envelope, we'll charge you a lower price. If you don't, we're going to charge you a higher price." The scheme is paused for this election, not abandoned.

Ruled Unlawful: Judge Talwani preliminarily enjoined the rule on September 4, 2026, finding that "Congress has never delegated its Elections Clause power to the USPS"; Judge Carl Nichols separately found that "No statute grants the Postal Service the power to issue key parts of the Rule"; and on September 14 the Supreme Court denied a stay, finding the government "unlikely to succeed on the merits."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The legal fight and the practical one have separated, and the practical one now has a number attached. Talwani blocked the rule on both the law and the calendar, and a postal official has since described a system built in weeks instead of a year with its testing removed. Note what the batch rule would do if it holds: one unmatched record does not delay one ballot, it returns ten thousand. Whether the rule survives appeal matters less to November than whether the machinery behind it works at all, and the people building it are saying it does not.

Sources

In Court The Voter Data Dragnet Sep 14, 2026

A Whistleblower Says DHS Officers Were Told to Pose as Voters to Search State Voter Records

A federal whistleblower's disclosure, published September 14, 2026 by Sens. Chuck Schumer and Alex Padilla, alleges that a DHS program called the "Unlawful Voter Initiative" directed USCIS employees to pose as individual voters to access their records on state voter-lookup websites. The report says the program "has potentially already committed thousands of violations of state law."

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  • A federal whistleblower's disclosure, published September 14, 2026 by Sens. Chuck Schumer and Alex Padilla, alleges that a DHS program called the "Unlawful Voter Initiative" directed USCIS employees to pose as individual voters to access their records on state voter-lookup websites. The report says the program "has potentially already committed thousands of violations of state law."
  • According to the report, officers had a quota of 40 people a day, "giving officers only twelve minutes to determine if a subject is a U.S. citizen," and training material acknowledged "there will be U.S. citizens in this population." Officers who raised legal concerns were told they were "not personally liable."
  • DHS said it "accessed publicly available data from states' voter rolls and cross referenced them with known aliens in our systems." The claims are allegations; no court, inspector general or state has confirmed the searches broke state law.
  • On September 17, 2026, Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones wrote to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin saying the department may have violated several state laws, and demanded it preserve access logs, correspondence and training materials. Virginia's voter-lookup tool is limited to people who attest under penalty of law that they are searching their own record, and Jones wrote that "Virginia Election Code does not permit disclosure of this protected information to the federal government without a court order."
  • The Associated Press reported that USCIS staff were made in late August to drop other work, complete a training of under two hours, and begin running department-supplied lists through state voter registration systems at roughly 40 people per day. DHS had not responded at publication, and no court has ruled.
  • Part of the account now has sworn support. In a September 14 court filing, a senior official in the immigration agency's fraud unit swore that the unit "has been investigating potential illegal voting by aliens who are not lawfully permitted to vote" and had used Social Security Administration data to help determine "whether illegal voting may have occurred." The filing does not address officers posing as voters on state websites. Eighteen senators asked the DHS inspector general to investigate immediately; DHS said the media was "conjuring controversy out of commonplace law enforcement."
  • The disclosure is now evidence in a federal lawsuit. On September 18 San Francisco, Santa Clara County, two nurses' unions and Voto Latino sued DHS in Northern California, citing it to argue that the department's target lists include eligible citizens; a preliminary-injunction hearing was set for October 1, and no ruling had been reported as of this update.

Sources

On the Record Seizing the Machinery Sep 14, 2026

The President Says the Super PAC's Billion Dollars Is 'My Money That I Control'

Federal law bars a federal officeholder from directing the spending of an organization that accepts unlimited contributions. On September 14, 2026 the Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against Trump, the super PAC MAGA Inc. and its treasurer under that provision, 52 U.S.C. § 30125(e)(1)(A).

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  • Federal law bars a federal officeholder from directing the spending of an organization that accepts unlimited contributions. On September 14, 2026 the Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against Trump, the super PAC MAGA Inc. and its treasurer under that provision, 52 U.S.C. § 30125(e)(1)(A).
  • The evidence is almost entirely Trump's own public statements. Corrected by an interviewer who described the money as belonging to his allies, he said, "Not my allies, I control it." In the Oval Office on September 4 he said, "I think I have like close to a billion dollars in the super PAC, and I'm allocating probably $400, $500 million," and, asked how he decides, "How do I make it? I sit down and I say, 'let's do this, let's do that.'" He also said: "this is money from MAGA Inc. This is my money that I control."
  • MAGA Inc. calls the complaint "frivolous" and says it "fully complies with the law." A complaint is an allegation, not a finding, and this one is unlikely to become either: the Federal Election Commission has two of six commissioners confirmed, too few to hold a formal meeting. Meanwhile MAGA Inc. has reported $10 million spent on the Texas Senate race, with nearly $140 million more reserved by related committees.
  • MAGA Inc.'s report for August, received by the FEC on September 20, showed $415.8 million in cash, less than half the "close to a billion dollars" Trump described. Against his promised $400 million to $500 million, CNBC found the super PAC had disclosed about $15 million in September spending, while two new Trump-linked super PACs that share a treasurer and address with MAGA Inc. had reserved about $126 million in ads.
  • On October 20 Trump posted, "I have spent, or will be spending, over 400 Million Dollars by Election Day." MAGA Inc.'s FEC reports show about $300.5 million disbursed this year through October 14, most of it transferred to other affiliated super PACs.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The soft-money rule exists so that an officeholder cannot personally direct unlimited money into their own party's races. Whether Trump broke it is for an agency that cannot currently convene to decide. What is not in dispute is that he described the arrangement the rule forbids, out loud, more than once, in the belief that saying so cost him nothing.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Sep 10, 2026

Trump Leads a Raised-Hand Pledge to 'the Greatest President' That Included 'Cheat Like Hell Like They Do'

Closing the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 10, 2026, Trump asked the arena to raise their right hands and repeat a pledge "to the greatest president in the history of the United States, that loves us so much he can't even breathe." The pledge he led included the line, "I don't care if I'm registered or not, I'm going to try to cheat like hell like they do. There has never been bigger cheaters." It closed with "So help me God," and he added, "You know what happens if you don't vote? You go to hell."

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  • Closing the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 10, 2026, Trump asked the arena to raise their right hands and repeat a pledge "to the greatest president in the history of the United States, that loves us so much he can't even breathe." The pledge he led included the line, "I don't care if I'm registered or not, I'm going to try to cheat like hell like they do. There has never been bigger cheaters." It closed with "So help me God," and he added, "You know what happens if you don't vote? You go to hell."
  • Per Mediaite's transcript, the crowd repeated the lines praising Trump and the closing oath, but the transcript shows no crowd response to the "cheat like hell" line. The Hill reported "some in the crowd tried to repeat" the pledge amid laughter. Headlines saying Trump made supporters swear or vow to cheat go further than the transcript supports.
  • "Like they do" refers to Democrats. Moments earlier Trump said Democrats oppose voter ID "because they want to cheat." CNN's fact check found no basis for broadly describing Democrats as election cheaters. Whether he meant his own line as sarcasm or literally has not been clarified by Trump or the White House.
  • The pledge came at an event where Trump was campaigning for voter ID and proof-of-citizenship requirements.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Read as a joke about Democrats, the line still does what the fraud claims elsewhere on this page do: it tells a crowd, from the stage and weeks before the vote, that the other side cheats. Read literally, it tells supporters registration does not matter. The White House has not said which reading it intends, and both point at the same November.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Sep 9, 2026

Trump Promises a $5,000 'Trump Dividend' to Every Adult if Republicans Keep Congress

At the Republican Party's first midterm convention, in Dallas on September 9, 2026, Trump said: "If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000." He added, "So if the Republicans win, you win with us, and you get $5,000. It will be called 'the Trump dividend.'"

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  • At the Republican Party's first midterm convention, in Dallas on September 9, 2026, Trump said: "If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000." He added, "So if the Republicans win, you win with us, and you get $5,000. It will be called 'the Trump dividend.'"
  • He named no funding source or mechanism. Vice President Vance said within the hour that tariffs would pay for it and that it would be limited to the middle class, a limit Trump did not state. Sen. Bernie Moreno said he would have a bill ready "immediately after the November 3rd election." Congress would have to appropriate the money.
  • With roughly 240 to 245 million adult citizens, the promise costs about $1.2 trillion or more. Tariff revenue was about $154.5 billion in the first ten months of fiscal 2026, and the Supreme Court's February tariff ruling has forced more than $100 billion in refunds. The deficit is running near $1.8 trillion.
  • Election-law scholar Rick Hasen wrote that the pledge is "almost certainly protected by the First Amendment" as a campaign promise delivered through the normal processes of government. Rep. Chip Roy asked how it would be paid for; former Freedom Caucus chairman Bob Good called it a "socialist vote-buying scheme."
  • Trump's earlier $5,000 DOGE dividend (February 2025) and $2,000 tariff dividend (November 2025) were never paid.
  • Asked on September 10 by CBS News Texas whether Congress would have to approve the payments, Trump said: "Well, we think not. I think they will do it if we needed it. But we think not." CBS reported it is not clear what legal authority a president would have to make payments that could cost upwards of a trillion dollars without Congress.
  • Asked the same night by Fox News host Laura Ingraham why he did not simply pay it now, Trump said: "Because they can't. I'll tell you what, because the Democrats can't do it, because with them it's negative growth." Republicans currently control both chambers.
  • Asked by ABC's Rachel Scott why a strong economy would need "an incentive for people to turn out to vote," Trump said it was "a reward for people having to put up with five years and four years of a horrible situation caused by Biden."
  • On September 13, outside Air Force One, Trump said, "The $5,000 is going to happen 100 percent," and explained why it would not come sooner: "I don't want to do it now, because if the Democrats get it, our country will be in shambles and they won't be able to do it." Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the administration could "earn the money that Donald Trump wants to pay out, not from the deficit and not from taxpayers," while National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested it could move through a reconciliation package in Congress.
  • Asked on September 10 where the money would come from, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick pointed to the Trump Platinum Card, a $5 million visa program that has not launched: "We have a waitlist of more than 100,000 people who want to come. That's $500 billion." Newsweek noted a place on the waitlist is not revenue and that 100,000 payments would cover about 41 percent of the estimated $1.23 trillion cost.
  • September 30, 2026: the administration began sending the separate $500 ACA payments to more than 950,000 people in 30 states, five weeks before the election, with a letter signed by Trump: "That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now I'm returning it to you!" Only the 30 states on the federal HealthCare.gov marketplace qualify, and a Reuters analysis found they hold eight of the nine Senate races nonpartisan analysts rate most competitive and 10 of the 12 most competitive governor's races; 71% of the payments, $339 million, go to people in those 13 states. "The White House did not respond to accusations they are trying to influence the election," Reuters reported, and noted a precedent on the other side: Biden's $2,000 promise in the 2021 Georgia runoffs.
  • On October 2, Trump announced one-time $90 payments to about 20.8 million seniors in Original Medicare from the Medicare Improvement Fund, which the White House says no administration has ever used; CMS says most will arrive by direct deposit "on or around October 8 followed by an email or a letter from the President in mid-October." Politico noted that money from the fund "is generally appropriated by Congress, and not given out by presidential fiat." The next day Trump said of earlier payments to troops, "Maybe I should have waited a year."
  • Who would be paid keeps changing. On September 11 Trump posted that the dividend would be "given to all Adults in the United States"; on October 2, that it "will be distributed to every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections!"; on October 3, "I'm going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000." Asked by Fortune who would be eligible, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said, "President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong." An Economist/YouGov poll taken September 11-14 found 21 percent of registered voters thought he would follow through and 57 percent thought he would not.
  • The conditional promises have extended to specific places. At an October 17 rally in Kentucky, Trump said, "If the Republicans win, the Department of War will be investing $100 million in the pharmaceutical company Antheia to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky," a town in the state's most competitive House district. The Pentagon's actual commitment is a conditional loan of "up to $80 million," and the company's release does not tie it to the election.
  • On October 19, at a rally for Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, Trump announced $8 billion in fuel-cost payments to farmers, paid under existing Agriculture Department authority, and posted, "When Republicans win, we will pass even more funding for our Great Farmers." At the rally he said, "when you're president, you have a little bit of an advantage."
  • At an October 20 rally in North Carolina, Trump said that if Republicans win he will direct the Justice Department to settle remaining Camp Lejeune water-contamination claims: "So, if we don't win, there's no money. If we do win, you're getting it." In Kansas the day before, he said of a year-round E15 ethanol rule, "But if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

This is not vote-buying in the legal sense, and the tracker does not call it that. It is something the law has not had to think about: a sitting president conditioning a cash payment to the public on which party wins an election, with no money to pay it. Whether a voter believes the check is coming is the whole point, and the record on the last two dividends answers that. The card is here because the promise is itself an instrument aimed at the outcome, made by the man whose administration is also setting the rules for the count.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Sep 9, 2026

Trump Says the Iran War 'Will End Immediately After Our Election'

At Joint Base Andrews on September 9, 2026, before flying to the Republican midterm convention, Trump said, "I think the war is going to end immediately after the election." He went on: "They can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in there, and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon."

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  • At Joint Base Andrews on September 9, 2026, before flying to the Republican midterm convention, Trump said, "I think the war is going to end immediately after the election." He went on: "They can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in there, and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon."
  • Asked whether negotiations would resume, he said, "We're not looking for it, to be honest." In Dallas that night he said Iran was "hanging out for dear life, hoping that we lose, so they can deal with dumb, weak Democrats."
  • The remarks came on a day Iran said it had targeted ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including two U.S. vessels, after U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian tankers. Newsweek counted roughly 23 separate Trump predictions since February of when the war would end. An NBC News Decision Desk poll found 69 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the war.
  • At the same stop, asked how he would explain oil prices that had just reached highs not seen since the war's early weeks, Trump said, "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward." He predicted gas would fall below $2 a gallon but said, "I think it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterm." Brent crude traded above $101 a barrel that day for the first time since July.
  • At the United Nations on September 22 he gave the timetable again: "I believe we'll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn't make sense for them not to." He added, "They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election." Hours later he said U.S. officials had met Iran's delegation for about three hours.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

A president is free to argue that an adversary wants him to lose. What this statement does is tie the end of a war he began without a vote of Congress to the date of a domestic election, in his own words, and cast the opposition party as the enemy's preferred outcome. Read alongside the impeachment card above it, it is the president's own account of what November decides.

Sources

In Effect The Narrative War Sep 9, 2026

Kimmel Keeps a Senate Candidate Off Broadcast TV, Citing Threats From Trump's FCC

On September 9, 2026, Jimmy Kimmel announced that his interview with James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, would be posted to YouTube and would not air on ABC. On air, he said: "His FCC has threatened me, threatened our show, threatened our network, ABC, our affiliates, our local stations, based on simple, traditional editorial decisions, guest bookings it would seem they don't like."

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  • On September 9, 2026, Jimmy Kimmel announced that his interview with James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, would be posted to YouTube and would not air on ABC. On air, he said: "His FCC has threatened me, threatened our show, threatened our network, ABC, our affiliates, our local stations, based on simple, traditional editorial decisions, guest bookings it would seem they don't like."
  • No FCC order barred the interview. Kimmel said the decision was made "out of consideration for our local stations, especially our ABC affiliates in Texas." After Talarico appeared on ABC's The View in February, the FCC opened an inquiry into ABC's Houston station and 20 Texas ABC affiliates filed equal-time notices.
  • In January 2026 the FCC's Media Bureau said late-night and daytime talk shows could no longer assume they qualify for the equal-time rule's news-interview exemption. CBS lawyers kept Talarico off Stephen Colbert's broadcast in February on the same basis. Disney and ABC sued the FCC in August; a hearing on the FCC's motion to dismiss is set for the week of October 5.
  • Kimmel noted he had interviewed candidates for 20 years, including Trump in 2015 and 2016, and said: "In the America we live in right now, that is the best that we can do until November." The FCC did not respond to requests for comment.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The regulator never had to rule. It only had to make the cost of airing a Senate candidate uncertain enough that two of the three largest broadcast networks decided not to find out. That is how a chilling effect works, and this one lands eight weeks before an election in a state where the same candidate is on the ballot.

Sources

Threatened Unprecedented Constitutional Conflict Redrawing the Maps Sep 9, 2026

The Census Bureau Proposes Counting Only Citizens and Green Card Holders Toward House Seats in 2030

On September 9, 2026, the Commerce Department posted a proposed rule, published in the Federal Register the next day, that would change who counts toward each state's share of the House and the Electoral College. Foreign citizens who are lawful permanent residents would still be counted; "all other citizens of foreign countries as of April 1 of a decennial census year" would be "not counted for apportionment." The published version also drops refugees and asylees. Comments are due October 13, 2026.

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  • On September 9, 2026, the Commerce Department posted a proposed rule, published in the Federal Register the next day, that would change who counts toward each state's share of the House and the Electoral College. Foreign citizens who are lawful permanent residents would still be counted; "all other citizens of foreign countries as of April 1 of a decennial census year" would be "not counted for apportionment." The published version also drops refugees and asylees. Comments are due October 13, 2026.
  • The rule would redefine a person's "usual residence" as the place they have "lawfully spent the greatest number of days" from January 3 to April 1, "evidenced by" their tax records. Internal records obtained by Talking Points Memo show Treasury objected that tax data should only corroborate an address, and Commerce overruled it.
  • It would also restrict demographic questions, calling race, ethnicity and sexual orientation "immaterial personal characteristics." NPR, Roll Call and The New Republic reported the effect would be to stop asking about race and ethnicity for the first time since 1790. Trump, on Truth Social: "People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS."
  • The Fourteenth Amendment apportions House seats by "the whole number of persons in each State." New York Attorney General Letitia James: "The Constitution is clear. Every person living in the United States, regardless of immigration status, must be counted in the Census." In 2019 the Supreme Court blocked a citizenship question on the 2020 census, and a July 2020 order to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment was rejected in federal court.
  • The effect on seats is contested. A 2020 Pew analysis found excluding undocumented immigrants alone would have moved three House seats, from California, Florida and Texas to Alabama, Minnesota and Ohio; a 2025 PNAS Nexus study found a "roughly neutral effect on House control and the Electoral College since 1980." The rule's broader exclusions have not been modeled, and it governs the 2030 count, not this November's election.

Why it's unprecedented: NPR, Roll Call and The New Republic reported the rule would stop the census from asking about race and ethnicity for the first time since 1790.

Constitutional Conflict: The Fourteenth Amendment apportions House seats by "the whole number of persons in each State." New York's attorney general and Asian Americans Advancing Justice say the rule conflicts with it.

Sources

In Court Ruled Unlawful The Voter Data Dragnet Sep 3, 2026

The DOJ Sues 30 States and D.C. for Voter Files and Loses All 26 Cases Decided So Far

Trump's DOJ has filed roughly 30 lawsuits against 29 states plus D.C. demanding voter registration data: names, addresses, birthdates, partial Social Security numbers, and driver's license numbers, using a Civil Rights Act provision written to protect Black voters.

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  • Trump's DOJ has filed roughly 30 lawsuits against 29 states plus D.C. demanding voter registration data: names, addresses, birthdates, partial Social Security numbers, and driver's license numbers, using a Civil Rights Act provision written to protect Black voters.
  • By August 2026 it was 0-for-21 in court, with no wins, losing every resolved case. Twelve of the losses came from judges appointed by Republican presidents, eight of them Trump's own. Trump appointee Judge Mary McElroy called the Rhode Island demand a "fishing expedition"; Judge Lance Walker in Maine noted an executive order contradicted DOJ assurances that no national database was being built.
  • Twelve Republican-led states complied voluntarily, so the data campaign advances even as it loses in court.
  • An NBC News review found the DOJ still cannot substantiate Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud months before the midterms.
  • On July 29, 2026, U.S. District Judge Zahid Quraishi dismissed the DOJ's demand for New Jersey's unredacted voter rolls, its eighteenth straight loss, noting that judges in more than a dozen other states had reached the same conclusion.
  • On August 3, 2026, U.S. District Judge Philip Brimmer, a George W. Bush appointee, dismissed the DOJ's demand for Colorado's voter rolls with prejudice, its twentieth straight loss; the nineteenth was a dismissal in Illinois. The department has also lost the only appellate ruling so far.
  • On August 6-7, 2026, U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss dismissed the DOJ's demand for the District of Columbia's full voter list, its twenty-first straight loss; a Washington State case argued August 4 was still undecided. The DOJ has appealed 16 of the losses, and the 6th Circuit has already rejected one (Michigan).
  • In early September 2026, Georgia released an audit of roughly 7.9 million voter registrations. It found the rolls more than 99.9% accurate with no evidence of malicious manipulation, and estimated that no more than 0.1% of records would have allowed a vote despite an unverified identity, invalid address, or citizenship problem.
  • The audit did find errors: about 2,570 potential noncitizens had at some point been placed in active or inactive status, 407 of them with a voting history. Auditors traced the cause to coding mistakes in the Department of Driver Services licensing process and to county verification failures, not to intentional registration by noncitizens.
  • Georgia joins nearly two dozen states that have run similar reviews over the past two years and found scant evidence of noncitizen voting at a scale capable of changing outcomes.
  • On September 1 and 2, 2026, reporting described a planned federal voter fraud inquiry in Georgia, and DHS subpoenaed voter files from Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The subpoena sought 13 files. Gabe Sterling, Raffensperger's director of special projects, called that relatively modest against Georgia's eight million-plus voters and said other states had received similar requests.
  • DHS cited more than 24,000 cases flagged by the SAVE system as potential noncitizens on voter rolls since April 2025. A federal court vacated the rebuilt SAVE system as unlawful in June 2026, and when Virginia checked its own SAVE flags, 94% of the people identified as noncitizens were U.S. citizens.
  • Utah is among the states being sued: its Republican lieutenant governor, Deidre Henderson, offered the public voter list but refused the unredacted one, and the department sued on February 26, 2026 (United States v. Henderson). Utah's own audit had confirmed the citizenship of 99.72% of registered voters. There has been no ruling.
  • As of October 16, 2026, ProPublica counted 31 voter-data suits and 26 final rulings, all against the department; four were pending and one state settled. The 26 judges include eight Trump appointees. West Virginia Judge Thomas Johnston, a George W. Bush appointee, wrote, "Clearly, this demand is devoid of any factual basis."

Ruled Unlawful: Twenty-one straight federal court losses with no wins, twelve before Republican-appointed judges (eight of them Trump's); one called the demand a "fishing expedition" that "lacks a legally sufficient basis."

Sources

In Court Ruled Unlawful The Voter Data Dragnet Sep 1, 2026

A National Voter Database Nobody Authorized

CNN reported in April 2026 that the administration is building a national voter database through a DOJ-DHS data sharing deal, with 50 to 60 million voter records already collected from states, assembled through executive channels with no congressional authorization.

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  • CNN reported in April 2026 that the administration is building a national voter database through a DOJ-DHS data sharing deal, with 50 to 60 million voter records already collected from states, assembled through executive channels with no congressional authorization.
  • The DHS SAVE system it relies on flagged about 21,000 of 60 million records as possible noncitizens, 0.00035%. In Virginia's experience with the same system, 94% of people flagged as "noncitizens" were actually U.S. citizens.
  • Experts warn naturalized citizens are the people most likely to be wrongly caught in the net.
  • As of February 2026, 27 states had agreed to run their voter rolls through the revamped SAVE system against Social Security and passport data. DHS acknowledges "the SAVE Program may produce inaccurate results," and has had to correct information it gave at least five states after the system misidentified voters as noncitizens.
  • On June 22, 2026, U.S. District Judge Sparkle L. Sooknanan vacated the rebuilt SAVE system and its privacy notices as contrary to law, arbitrary and capricious, in excess of statutory authority, and adopted without required procedure, finding violations of the Privacy Act, the Social Security Act and the Administrative Procedure Act. Her opinion said the agencies "haphazardly combined and repurposed the private information of millions of Americans, including citizenship data that they knew to be unreliable."
  • The vacatur did not settle it. On July 7, 2026, U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell II granted an emergency motion by Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Indiana to enforce a settlement with DHS, and a judge ordered the tool restored the next day. Two federal courts were issuing conflicting orders about the same system.
  • Trump's March 2026 executive order contains a section, separate from the mail-ballot provisions that have been litigated all year, directing federal agencies to compile and send each state's chief election official a list of individuals confirmed to be citizens aged 18 or older, no fewer than 60 days before each federal election.
  • On September 1, 2026, DHS published a "State Citizenship Lists Portal" webpage saying the lists were coming soon. A June DHS memo had set a target of having it fully functional by Friday, September 4.
  • The lists are not built from state voter registration files. They are assembled from federal databases whose citizenship information is incomplete, which is why plaintiffs argue actual citizens will be left off.
  • On September 1, 2026, the Electronic Privacy Information Center sued DHS and the Social Security Administration in federal court in Maryland, represented by Protect Democracy and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. The 41-page complaint cites the Privacy Act of 1974, the Social Security Act, the Administrative Procedure Act, and the constitutional allocation of election authority to the states.
  • The complaint alleges DHS is "aggressively pushing state election officials to use this admittedly unreliable data to purge their voter rolls of purported non-citizens, under threat of fines, penalties, and even prison time."
  • EPIC deputy director John Davisson: "Building a database containing the identities, Social Security numbers, addresses, and citizenship information of every U.S. citizen is an extraordinary illegal overreach."
  • On September 25, 2026, the Supreme Court stayed the June ruling 6-3, letting the government use the rebuilt SAVE system while the appeal goes on. The majority found the administration likely to prevail under a 1996 law and noted that federal law bars systematic purges within 90 days of an election. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, dissenting for three: "[T]he harm caused by burdening or disenfranchising even a few lawful voters outweighs the nonexistent harm that the Government experiences when it is prevented from taking an action that it likely lacks the authority to take." At least 67 million registrations have been run through SAVE, the AP reported; in Travis County, Texas, at least 10% of 97 voters it flagged as apparent noncitizens were citizens.
  • DHS says election officials in 25 states have run their rolls through SAVE; in Texas it flagged hundreds of people who had registered through the Department of Public Safety, which requires proof of citizenship, Votebeat reported. Georgia will not use it before the midterms. At a September 25 hearing on the separate citizenship-lists portal, a Justice Department attorney told Judge Paula Xinis, "I can't tell you we won't have a live portal before the midterms," Democracy Docket reported; she ordered briefs by October 2.
  • After the September 25 hearing, Judge Paula Xinis ordered the government to "file a NOTICE with this Court thirty (30) days in advance of any activation of the portal or provision of state citizenship lists," or immediately if it plans to act sooner. It is a notice requirement, not a bar; her ruling on whether the lists are lawful is pending. Separately, the State Department has told Congress it plans to let passport records be shared through federal verification platforms for checking "voter eligibility."

Ruled Unlawful: A federal court vacated the rebuilt SAVE system on June 22, 2026 as contrary to law and in violation of the Privacy Act, the Social Security Act and the Administrative Procedure Act. A conflicting order from another district followed, and the successor State Citizenship Lists are separately under challenge. On September 25, 2026 the Supreme Court stayed the vacatur 6-3 pending appeal, finding the government likely to prevail.

Sources

In Court Force at the Polls Sep 1, 2026

DHS Launched a Nine-State Voter Fraud Surge With Field Interviews as Early Voting Opened

CNN reported on August 31, 2026 that internal federal guidance directs Homeland Security Investigations, ICE's criminal-investigations arm, to launch a "coordinated criminal voter fraud surge initiative to pursue investigative leads, conduct field interviews, and support timely prosecutorial review" on September 1. HSI offices in Washington, Wisconsin, Missouri, Georgia, California, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New York and Connecticut were to act from early September to mid-October. The California Globe and the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported the same plan.

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  • CNN reported on August 31, 2026 that internal federal guidance directs Homeland Security Investigations, ICE's criminal-investigations arm, to launch a "coordinated criminal voter fraud surge initiative to pursue investigative leads, conduct field interviews, and support timely prosecutorial review" on September 1. HSI offices in Washington, Wisconsin, Missouri, Georgia, California, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New York and Connecticut were to act from early September to mid-October. The California Globe and the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported the same plan.
  • Voting opens in seven of the nine states before mid-October. Long-standing Justice Department policy discourages "overt" investigative steps as an election approaches, because doing otherwise "runs the risk of chilling legitimate voting and campaign activities." DHS is not bound by that policy, and CNN reported the guidance makes no reference to the timing. A DHS spokesperson said HSI "is actively rooting out and investigating election fraud wherever it can be found."
  • The results, in the administration's own numbers: at a September 22 briefing an HSI official cited about 1,600 cases and 160 arrests, and the Justice Department said it had charged 70 people with "unlawful voting and registration offenses" since January 2025. A department spokesperson said many HSI arrests "result in charges for related offenses, such as false claims to citizenship or false statements, rather than the voting statute itself." ProPublica found 41 alleged noncitizen voters charged from January 2025 to May 2026.
  • On September 18 San Francisco, Santa Clara County, the California Nurses Association, National Nurses United and the Voto Latino Foundation sued under Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act, which bars voter intimidation. The complaint alleges that "DHS is now deploying armed and often militarized agents to homes to interrogate residents about whether they are eligible to vote," and cites a September 11 post from HSI's San Francisco office showing agents knocking on residential doors. One plaintiff nurse, a naturalized citizen, has switched from voting in person to voting by mail out of fear of being targeted.
  • On September 23 Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin set an expedited schedule: the government's opposition is due September 28 and a preliminary-injunction hearing is set for October 1. No court has ruled, and the guidance itself is not public. Asked about the lawsuit, DHS told Reason it needed more time to respond.
  • Internal records released October 7 show HSI investigators ingested 50.6 million records from a Justice Department dataset and 48.4 million more obtained by a senior counselor to Secretary Mullin from unidentified sources, adopted a "network-based investigative approach" aimed at registration groups, and explored using undercover agents. By late May there were 418 cases and 64 administrative arrests; 318 cases had not been referred for prosecution.
  • On October 21, 2026, U.S. District Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin granted a preliminary injunction barring DHS "elections-related field operations and field interviews" in the nine surge states against people the agencies "know, suspect, or should reasonably know or suspect are U.S. citizens," through Election Day. The court called the matching data "voluminous and unreliable." The order is stayed until 5 p.m. October 23 and does not bar investigations of unlawful voting as such; no appeal had been filed as of October 22.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The Justice Department's own manual says why investigators keep quiet as an election nears: the visit itself can chill voting. DHS wrote a plan for the opposite, interviews in the weeks ballots go out, and its own figures show how few cases there are to find. A knock on the door reaches every voter who hears about it, whether or not it ends in a charge.

Sources

In Court Prohibited by Law The Ballot Box Aug 28, 2026

The Pentagon Quietly Removed the Checkbox for Americans Born Abroad From the Overseas Voter Form

Weeks before the September 19 deadline for states to send midterm ballots to overseas voters, the Pentagon used an "emergency" request to change the federal overseas voter forms, removing the checkbox for a U.S. citizen abroad who has "never lived in the United States." Some version of it had been on the forms since 2013.

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  • Weeks before the September 19 deadline for states to send midterm ballots to overseas voters, the Pentagon used an "emergency" request to change the federal overseas voter forms, removing the checkbox for a U.S. citizen abroad who has "never lived in the United States." Some version of it had been on the forms since 2013.
  • OMB approved the second emergency request on August 28, 2026, two days after receiving it; the public comment period opened afterward. The Pentagon says the change will "reduce confusion and avoid the use of the form by those who are ineligible under UOCAVA," and that states can keep processing older forms.
  • Thirty-eight states and D.C. let these citizens vote; the Pentagon's own voting program estimated about 11,590 were registered in 2016. The change tracks an RNC legal campaign whose filings say such voters "largely favor Democratic candidates."
  • The DNC sued the Defense Department and OMB on October 1, 2026, alleging a "transparently false 'emergency'" to change the forms without notice and comment. No court has ruled.

Prohibited by Law: The DNC alleges the change violated the Administrative Procedure Act and the Paperwork Reduction Act's notice-and-comment process.

Sources

In Effect Force at the Polls Aug 26, 2026

A Republican Governor Asks His AG to Investigate the DOJ's Election Monitors

The Justice Department sent two Civil Rights Division attorneys to observe Wyoming's primary in Laramie County, which contains Cheyenne. Gov. Mark Gordon (R) said some officials, including the state attorney general, were not told in advance.

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  • The Justice Department sent two Civil Rights Division attorneys to observe Wyoming's primary in Laramie County, which contains Cheyenne. Gov. Mark Gordon (R) said some officials, including the state attorney general, were not told in advance.
  • Gordon, at an August 26, 2026 state canvassing board meeting: "It sounded like the behavior of the observers was a bit aggressive. It just was irregular, and I have asked the attorney general to start looking into the nature of the visits."
  • Laramie County Chief Election Clerk Debra Lee said the observers arrived unannounced, offered no credentials, and asked detailed questions that were outside the scope of federal voting rights laws.
  • Gordon did not allege the election was compromised. He said the opposite: "I'm not saying anything went wrong or anything else, and I certainly think that the conduct of this election was phenomenal." His objection was jurisdictional, that the observers' behavior "seemed to exceed what the authority that Congress had given them was."
  • He also said he does not object to election monitors as such, adding: "I don't like the federal government coming in and taking our votes."
  • DOJ pointed to an August 18 statement from Wyoming U.S. Attorney Darin Smith: "Voters deserve absolute confidence that their ballots are secure and their voices are heard without interference."
  • DOJ has sent more than 80 monitors to seven states for primaries this year, and says it plans to send about 1,000 monitors to polling sites in November. The administration says the deployments follow decades-old federal monitoring practice.
  • On September 21, 2026, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon said of November: "This is going to be the biggest DOJ election observer effort in history," and, "I've called for, and plan to send, 1,000 to the general election jurisdictions that we're selecting." CNN reported that some monitors sent during the primaries were recently hired attorneys who had helped challenge Trump's 2020 loss, according to records obtained by Democracy Forward, and that DOJ first sent its Wyoming notice to election officials in Wisconsin.
  • On October 2 the NAACP sued the Justice Department for records on the 1,000-monitor plan (NAACP v. Dhillon, No. 1:26-cv-03461) and on October 5 asked for emergency processing, calling it an "unprecedented deployment of federal officials" that "stands to jeopardize the election." The suit seeks records, not an order stopping the deployment.
  • Department records show David Michael Levin, who pleaded guilty in 2016 to two misdemeanors for accessing a Florida county elections website, was credentialed as a Justice Department observer in Maricopa County's July primary. The department says prosecutors will serve as monitors and that monitors will not identify themselves as prosecutors; at least seven monitored Arizona's primary.
  • On October 16 the NAACP and three voters sued Attorney General Todd Blanche, Dhillon and the department in NAACP v. Blanche (D.D.C.), claiming voter intimidation under Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act. "There is no federal statute that gives Defendants the authority to turn polling places into interrogation rooms," the complaint says. It asks the court to bar using prosecutors or agents as monitors.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Voting-rights groups warned for a year that the monitor program could be used to pressure local officials rather than protect voters, and that warning was easy to file as partisan. This complaint is not. It comes from a Republican governor in one of the reddest states in the country, who volunteered that his own election was run well and that he has no objection to monitors in principle. That narrows the dispute to the one question worth watching: what these observers actually do when they arrive. Wyoming is a two-attorney, one-county sample. November is roughly 1,000 of them.

Sources

In Court Unprecedented Constitutional Conflict Seizing the Machinery Aug 24, 2026

The Supreme Court Lets the Mail-Voting Order Advance, Without Ruling It Legal

On March 31, 2026, Trump signed an executive order directing DHS to compile federal lists of "confirmed U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state" and giving the Postal Service control over mail ballot distribution. It was drafted in part by Kurt Olsen, who was involved in the 2020 election-overturn effort.

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  • On March 31, 2026, Trump signed an executive order directing DHS to compile federal lists of "confirmed U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state" and giving the Postal Service control over mail ballot distribution. It was drafted in part by Kurt Olsen, who was involved in the 2020 election-overturn effort.
  • States refused immediately. New Hampshire's secretary of state: "The Federal Government cannot usurp New Hampshire's express constitutional authority." Twenty-three Democratic-led states sued; at least four lawsuits are pending.
  • The Constitution assigns election administration to the states (Article I, Section 4). Election expert David Becker predicted courts would block the order "before the ink is dry."
  • In May, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, declined to block it, reasoning that no agency had yet acted on it in a way that harmed the plaintiffs. By June, plaintiffs told an appeals court the order was already being implemented through the USPS rule and DHS memos.
  • On July 25, 2026, the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals (2-1) refused to lift a June 25 injunction blocking the order's key provisions in the 23 states, leaving the federal "citizenship list" and ballot-routing scheme blocked while the case proceeds.
  • On July 27, 2026, the DOJ took it to the Supreme Court, asking on the emergency docket to put the injunction on hold and let the order take effect in the 23 states and D.C., 99 days before the midterms. The Court ordered the states to respond by August 3. A single emergency order could decide whether the federal government screens the nation's mail ballots this fall.
  • Trump himself voted by mail in Florida three days before signing the order.
  • On August 24, 2026, the Supreme Court granted emergency applications from the DOJ and a dozen Republican-led states and lifted, 6-3, Judge Talwani's June injunction blocking the order in the 23 states and D.C. that sued.
  • The majority ruled on standing, not legality: any injury would come from "the downstream action that the Secretary might take in the future," which was "no more than conjecture." It added that its ruling "does not mean that any measure taken by the Government to implement the Order will necessarily be lawful."
  • A second, nationwide injunction Talwani issued August 11 in the League of Women Voters case was not before the Court and remains in force, so the order still cannot be implemented for November as of this update.
  • Sotomayor and Kagan dissented together, saying the decision "merely postpones adjudication." Jackson dissented separately: the ruling "needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty into the upcoming midterm elections."
  • ProPublica reported on September 28, citing several people knowledgeable about the discussions, that the administration first floated requiring every mail ballot to be delivered by certified mail, so voters would have to be home to sign for it, and dropped the idea after Postal Service objections. A top postal official: "It was just, for many reasons, a terrible idea." The White House disputed that the idea was unworkable. The account rests on one outlet and anonymous sources.

Why it's unprecedented: The order gives the Postal Service unprecedented oversight over who receives a mail ballot and directs the first federal voter-eligibility lists.

Constitutional Conflict: Article I, Section 4 assigns election administration to the states. Twenty-three states are suing; New Hampshire's secretary of state called it a usurpation of state constitutional authority.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Read the headline and the holding separately. The Court did not say the order is lawful; it said these plaintiffs sued too early, and it went out of its way to say implementing measures might still be unlawful. What actually stands between the order and November is the other injunction, the nationwide one, which the Court did not touch. That is a thinner thread than a ruling on the merits, and it is now the only thread.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Aug 21, 2026

Trump Tells Supporters He Gets Impeached if Republicans Lose

Campaigning in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on August 21, 2026, Trump told supporters he expects to be impeached if Republicans lose the November midterms, and that they would "lose everything" if Democrats took control of Congress for his final two years.

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  • Campaigning in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on August 21, 2026, Trump told supporters he expects to be impeached if Republicans lose the November midterms, and that they would "lose everything" if Democrats took control of Congress for his final two years.
  • He made the same argument earlier in 2026 at a House Republican policy retreat: "You got to win the midterms, because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be, I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me."
  • Impeachment requires a House majority to impeach and two-thirds of the Senate to convict. A Democratic House alone could impeach but not remove him.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Predicting impeachment is not improper, and a president is entitled to campaign on the stakes. What this supplies is his own statement of what he personally stands to lose, made while his administration is directing federal agencies into the administration of the same election: the mail-voting order, the USPS ballot rule, the voter-roll suits. Every other card here documents an action. This one documents the motive the president stated out loud.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Aug 18, 2026

The Census Bureau Claims 24,000 Noncitizens Voted in 2020, and Trump Declares 'I WON THE ELECTION!'

On August 18, 2026, the Census Bureau released a report claiming more than 24,000 noncitizens illegally voted in 2020, from an analysis of 128 million voter records. Trump posted "I WON THE ELECTION!" and predicted the number would "explode." Taken at face value, 24,000 votes would be less than 0.02 percent of the roughly 160 million ballots cast.

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  • On August 18, 2026, the Census Bureau released a report claiming more than 24,000 noncitizens illegally voted in 2020, from an analysis of 128 million voter records. Trump posted "I WON THE ELECTION!" and predicted the number would "explode." Taken at face value, 24,000 votes would be less than 0.02 percent of the roughly 160 million ballots cast.
  • CNN, citing three former bureau officials who served under Trump, reported that the administration had installed partisan analysts from the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute inside the bureau, and NPR reported the analysis was not done by career civil servants.
  • The next day, in a revision dated August 19, the Commerce Department removed language banning political interference from its scientific integrity policy, NPR reported.

Sources

Threatened Constitutional Conflict The Ballot Box Aug 10, 2026

A Draft Executive Order Declaring an 'Election Emergency'

ABC News reported in February 2026 that pro-Trump attorneys circulated a 17-page draft executive order declaring an "election emergency" based on a claim of Chinese interference in 2020 for which no evidence exists.

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  • ABC News reported in February 2026 that pro-Trump attorneys circulated a 17-page draft executive order declaring an "election emergency" based on a claim of Chinese interference in 2020 for which no evidence exists.
  • The draft would mandate voter ID for the midterms, ban mail-in ballots, and require hand-counted paper ballots, by presidential decree.
  • Sources told ABC that Trump reviewed the draft and that the attorneys were coordinating with the White House. Trump denied knowing about it.
  • Five months later, his primetime address made the same Chinese-interference claim the draft order was built on.
  • On August 11, 2026, asked directly whether he would declare a "national security emergency for elections" to impose citizenship, photo-ID, and mail-in rules without Congress, a plan pushed by a Real America's Voice host, Trump did not rule it out: "Let me just say that stranger things have happened, OK? I'll leave it at that." Asked by TIME on September 28 whether he would rule out declaring a state of emergency before the midterms, he answered, "I don't rule anything out or in. We'll see. You mean the Insurrection Act?" and then, "No, I've never used it. I could use it."

Constitutional Conflict: The Constitution gives election authority to Congress and the states, and a federal court had already struck down a previous Trump election executive order.

Sources

In Effect The Narrative War Jul 29, 2026

Musk Revives America PAC With a Planned $100 Million Turnout Operation, Coordinating With Trump's Political Team

On July 29-30, 2026, the New York Times and Axios reported that Elon Musk authorized his super PAC, America PAC, to spend between $100 million and $120 million on a get-out-the-vote program for Republicans, beginning the following month and targeting at least eight states.

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  • On July 29-30, 2026, the New York Times and Axios reported that Elon Musk authorized his super PAC, America PAC, to spend between $100 million and $120 million on a get-out-the-vote program for Republicans, beginning the following month and targeting at least eight states.
  • The initial Senate targets are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, with talks about North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas, plus House races in California, Wisconsin, and Washington. The program is door-knocking, digital advertising, and direct mail aimed at turning out irregular conservative voters.
  • It revives the vehicle Musk used to spend more than $260 million backing Trump in 2024, again run by his top political adviser, Chris Young. The group intends to align its canvassing with the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity under recently loosened coordination rules.
  • Axios reported that Musk has been in talks with Trump's political team about how he can help; an America PAC spokesman, Andrew Romeo, said, "we're excited to again be part of the team."
  • This is legal super-PAC spending. What is documented here is its scale and the reported coordination with the president's political operation.
  • By October, Musk had given more than $276 million since July, including $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, the New York Times reported and his super PAC's spokesperson confirmed to AP.
  • FEC filings show Musk gave the Senate Leadership Fund $75 million on September 9 and $83 million on September 23, and "Both times, the SLF transferred the exact same amount to Texas PAC the following day," CNBC reported. Texas PAC, which backs Ken Paxton, reported no other donors through September.
  • By mid-October Musk had also put more than $7 million into independent groups backing Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio, according to an advocacy group's analysis of federal data reported by the Ohio Capital Journal.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

This card is the boundary of our own standard. Spending money to persuade voters is legal, and we do not call it rigging. We include it because the same donor already drew an adjudicated ballot-law violation in Georgia and a bribery referral in Wisconsin, and because a nine-figure operation coordinating with the White House political team is context a reader deserves when weighing everything else on this page. Judge it as spending, not as fraud.

Sources

On the Record Replacing the Referees Jul 28, 2026

The New Intelligence Chief Wouldn't Say Who Won 2020

At his July 2026 confirmation hearing, Trump's DNI nominee Jay Clayton refused to say Joe Biden won the 2020 election, allowing only that Biden was "certified."

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  • At his July 2026 confirmation hearing, Trump's DNI nominee Jay Clayton refused to say Joe Biden won the 2020 election, allowing only that Biden was "certified."
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff pressed him repeatedly, "we can keep doing this", and Clayton kept declining to name the winner.
  • The hearing came the day before Trump's primetime address claiming declassified intelligence showed 2020 was compromised. Clayton would replace acting DNI Bill Pulte, who pushed for that address.
  • On July 28, 2026, the Senate confirmed Clayton as director of national intelligence, 51-47 on a party-line vote, putting a chief who would not say Biden won 2020 atop the 18 intelligence agencies weeks before the midterms.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Jul 16, 2026

The Primetime Address That Debunked Itself

On July 16, 2026, Trump delivered a 27-minute primetime address claiming U.S. elections were "left vulnerable to being rigged and stolen," that China obtained 220 million voter records, and that the "deep state" suppressed the intelligence. He demanded the SAVE Act and paper ballots: "The only reason you wouldn't [pass it] is you want to cheat."

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  • On July 16, 2026, Trump delivered a 27-minute primetime address claiming U.S. elections were "left vulnerable to being rigged and stolen," that China obtained 220 million voter records, and that the "deep state" suppressed the intelligence. He demanded the SAVE Act and paper ballots: "The only reason you wouldn't [pass it] is you want to cheat."
  • The documents he declassified undercut him: they state China "did not deploy interference efforts" to change 2020 and that election systems "would be difficult to manipulate." What they do show is Russia interfering on Trump's behalf, seeding Burisma narratives and undermining confidence in mail voting.
  • His own task-force investigator, John Solomon, conceded on air: "the intelligence community has zero evidence that a foreign power flipped the vote in 2020, '22, or '24."
  • Five days later, asked if China would face consequences, Trump shrugged: "It took place a long time ago... we do things to them too, it's not a one-way street." Sen. Mark Warner's reading of the speech: "Donald Trump intends to interfere in this year's elections... this was the opening shot."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Follow the sequence: the claims were contradicted by his own documents, disowned by his own investigator, and finally waved off by Trump himself. What survives is the only thing the address was built to produce, doubt about the election he is restructuring.

Sources

Threatened Constitutional Conflict The Narrative War Jul 16, 2026

Air the Speech or Lose Your License

When ABC and NBC declined to carry the primetime election address on broadcast (they streamed it; CBS, Fox, and the CW aired it), Trump called the decision "fraud" and demanded their broadcast licenses be revoked.

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  • When ABC and NBC declined to carry the primetime election address on broadcast (they streamed it; CBS, Fox, and the CW aired it), Trump called the decision "fraud" and demanded their broadcast licenses be revoked.
  • The FCC's sole Democratic commissioner called the demand unconstitutional. Networks do not hold broadcast licenses; their local affiliates do, and most are owned by other companies.
  • The threat landed on an FCC whose chair has repeatedly threatened broadcasters over content.

Constitutional Conflict: The FCC's sole Democratic commissioner called the demand unconstitutional; the president has no authority to force outlets to air his speech or punish them for declining.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Jul 16, 2026

DHS Says 250,000 Noncitizens Are Registered to Vote in Four States. The States and the Fact-Checkers Say the Number Is Wildly Inflated.

In mid-July 2026, DHS claimed more than 250,000 noncitizens were registered to vote across four states: 190,832 in California, 35,152 in New Jersey, 15,903 in Nevada, and 14,576 in Pennsylvania. Secretary Markwayne Mullin promoted the numbers.

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  • In mid-July 2026, DHS claimed more than 250,000 noncitizens were registered to vote across four states: 190,832 in California, 35,152 in New Jersey, 15,903 in Nevada, and 14,576 in Pennsylvania. Secretary Markwayne Mullin promoted the numbers.
  • Snopes rated the claim false, finding zero evidence to support it. PolitiFact reported the figures were preliminary counts of the kind that shrink drastically after vetting.
  • New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said a 2023-24 software error had registered about 6,600 noncitizens, who cast fewer than 400 ballots statewide in total. Nevada told the New York Times that just 138 of its 2.1 million active voters lacked a driver's license or Social Security number at registration.
  • The inflated figure has been used to justify federal intervention in state-run elections, while the vetted counts are small enough to change no outcome.
  • In Nevada, NPR reported, DHS called its figure of roughly 16,000 flagged registrants "the ceiling" on a recorded call, then sent the state a list of 185 voter IDs it was confident about. Deputy Secretary of State Mark Wlaschin: "We are unable to conduct an analysis without real verifiable information."
  • In Pennsylvania, Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt wrote to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin that DHS staff "did not have high confidence" in their count of 14,576 flagged registrants. DHS called that a mischaracterization.
  • A September 9, 2026 DHS email obtained by Votebeat and Spotlight PA says a USCIS fraud unit matched Pennsylvania's public voter roll against DHS databases using first and last name, date of birth, phone number and address, and did not use Social Security numbers, though DHS had told the state in July that Social Security numbers were used in some matches. DHS wrote that "Each one of the 14,576 individuals identified should be carefully reviewed by your state to determine eligibility." As of September 16 the state had not received the list.
  • Nevada has since told DHS its records show the 185 were citizens: "You have provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise," Deputy Attorney General Greg Ott wrote. DHS says the 185 were a manually reviewed subset, and because it identified voters only by number, the state cannot be fully certain both sides mean the same people. DHS has also sent 6,218 records that had not gone through the same review, has never given the state the full list of 15,903, and, asked for names, birth dates and addresses, said it would "prefer to limit our information sharing to just providing you the voter ID from your public voter list."
  • DHS's own letters to the four states said its "preliminary review" had matched about 118,000 names, less than half the public figure, The Hill reported, and American Oversight noted the letters said only that there "may be as many as" 250,000. After DHS produced no records in response to August requests for the data behind the number, American Oversight sued on September 30; CREW sued DHS and USCIS on September 29.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The number does not have to survive fact-checking to do its job. It has to exist long enough to justify the federal government reaching into four states' voter rolls.

Sources

In Effect Force at the Polls Jul 14, 2026

The National Guard Is Scheduled in the Capital Through the Next Two Elections

The Pentagon confirmed in July 2026 that the D.C. National Guard deployment will run through Inauguration Day 2029 unless Trump decides otherwise, keeping troops in the capital through the 2026 midterms and the 2028 election.

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  • The Pentagon confirmed in July 2026 that the D.C. National Guard deployment will run through Inauguration Day 2029 unless Trump decides otherwise, keeping troops in the capital through the 2026 midterms and the 2028 election.
  • The force has roughly doubled to nearly 5,000 troops from more than 20 states, at a cost the Congressional Budget Office puts above $3 million per day. It was created by a "crime emergency" declared while D.C. violent crime sat at a 30-year low.
  • A nonpartisan Niskanen Center study found no measurable effect on violent crime. The Brennan Center's Elizabeth Goitein: announcing an emergency will last another two and a half years means it is not an emergency.
  • On October 8, 2026, Guard troops were filmed standing beside a ballot drop box in Foggy Bottom before the boxes opened. The D.C. Board of Elections asked the Guard to "impose limitations on the placement of National Guard service members near drop boxes and other voting locations," and the joint task force said its members "are directed not to monitor or secure polling locations" and that it was "actively addressing this specific instance."

Sources

In Court Prohibited by Law The Ballot Box Jul 14, 2026

A Bipartisan Commission Finds Musk's $1 Million Voter Checks Likely Broke the Bribery Law

On July 14, 2026, the Wisconsin Elections Commission, three Democrats and three Republicans, voted 5-1 to find probable cause that Elon Musk violated the state's election bribery law with his $1 million checks to voters before the 2025 state Supreme Court election, and referred him to prosecutors.

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  • On July 14, 2026, the Wisconsin Elections Commission, three Democrats and three Republicans, voted 5-1 to find probable cause that Elon Musk violated the state's election bribery law with his $1 million checks to voters before the 2025 state Supreme Court election, and referred him to prosecutors.
  • The commission found Musk's offer was made "to induce them to vote." He handed out two $1 million checks at a Green Bay rally days before the election and offered $100 for signing a petition.
  • Musk and allied groups spent at least $20 million on the race, the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history at over $100 million total. His candidate lost by 10 points.
  • The Brown County district attorney has 40 days from the referral to report back on charges.
  • On August 7, 2026, Brown County DA David Lasee said his office had a conflict of interest, without specifying it, and requested a special prosecutor. La Crosse County DA Tim Gruenke took the case over. The 40 days after the referral passed with no charging decision.

Prohibited by Law: A bipartisan state commission found probable cause that the payments violated Wisconsin's election bribery law; prosecutors now decide on charges.

Sources

In Effect Replacing the Referees Jul 11, 2026

Refuse the 2020 Probe, Lose Your Job

FBI Director Kash Patel directed roughly 260 intelligence analysts nationwide onto a "priority investigation" of Georgia's 2020 election, a race Biden won by nearly 12,000 votes and that multiple investigations, including by Georgia Republicans, found clean. Each analyst was assigned 708 record checks.

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  • FBI Director Kash Patel directed roughly 260 intelligence analysts nationwide onto a "priority investigation" of Georgia's 2020 election, a race Biden won by nearly 12,000 votes and that multiple investigations, including by Georgia Republicans, found clean. Each analyst was assigned 708 record checks.
  • Two Atlanta-based analysts, a married couple, refused on the grounds that the probe was not justified under FBI and DOJ policy. They were escorted out of the building and fired.
  • Sen. Mark Warner: "This diversion of significant FBI resources towards a political investigation threatens the purpose of its mission."

Sources

In Effect Unprecedented Seizing the Machinery Jul 9, 2026

The Agency That Certifies Voting Systems Is Left With Nobody Home

On July 9, 2026, Trump removed the last members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, firing Democrats Thomas Hicks and Benjamin Hovland while Republican Christy McCormick was allowed to resign. With zero commissioners, the agency cannot take official action until the Senate confirms replacements.

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  • On July 9, 2026, Trump removed the last members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, firing Democrats Thomas Hicks and Benjamin Hovland while Republican Christy McCormick was allowed to resign. With zero commissioners, the agency cannot take official action until the Senate confirms replacements.
  • The EAC certifies voting systems, maintains the national voter registration form, distributes federal election funds, and advises election officials. In March 2025 Trump had ordered it to rewrite the national registration form to require documentary proof of citizenship.
  • Months earlier, the administration blocked appointments to the EAC's Technical Guidelines Development Committee, leaving nearly half its 15 seats vacant, unprecedented in its 20-year history, with no functioning body to update voting-system security guidelines before the midterms.
  • Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar: it "will again fall on Secretaries of State... to fill the gap."

Why it's unprecedented: Nearly half the standards committee's seats vacant is unprecedented in its 20-year history, and the commission itself now has zero members and cannot act.

Sources

On the Record Replacing the Referees Jul 7, 2026

The Justice Department Warns Every State's Election Officials They Could Be Prosecuted

On July 7, 2026, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon wrote to election officials in all 50 states and D.C. that any election officer who "knowingly retains noncitizens" on the rolls "could be subject to criminal liability," giving each state five days to respond. The department called it a request for "voluntary compliance in a timely manner."

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  • On July 7, 2026, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon wrote to election officials in all 50 states and D.C. that any election officer who "knowingly retains noncitizens" on the rolls "could be subject to criminal liability," giving each state five days to respond. The department called it a request for "voluntary compliance in a timely manner."
  • In September the department sent litigation-hold letters to the 29 states and D.C. it is suing for voter data, warning of "civil and criminal sanctions" if records are not preserved. The letter to Utah's Republican lieutenant governor, Deidre Henderson, told her she is "under investigation"; the department would not say for what.
  • Henderson told 60 Minutes in October: "In the past two elections that I oversaw as lieutenant governor the threats were all external. Non-state actors, cyber security threats and other things. But now we also have threats coming from within our own government." Dhillon told the program, "It's not to sow distrust. The distrust is there."
  • As early voting opened in Texas on October 19, U.S. Attorney Aaron Reitz of the Southern District said federal monitors meant "no crooked local election administrators," and, "If you violate federal election law, I will hunt you down and prosecute you." He did not identify any specific violation, the Houston Chronicle reported.
  • On October 20, 2026, the Democratic Senate, House and governors' committees, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and the Nevada Democratic Party sued Trump, the Justice Department, Blanche, DHS and Mullin in federal court in Washington (DSCC v. Trump), asking the court to enjoin federal demands that states purge voters, withhold ballots, or segregate and not count them, and to stop threats against election officials. No ruling yet.
  • Dhillon called the letters "standard litigation practice." No election official has been charged.

Sources

In Effect Prohibited by Law Replacing the Referees Jul 2, 2026

The Intelligence Purge Comes With Instructions

In early July 2026, dozens of intelligence officials began receiving termination notices under acting DNI Bill Pulte, two weeks into his tenure, with reporting indicating he was eyeing hundreds of firings. Those removed were described by leadership as "deep state" officials.

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  • In early July 2026, dozens of intelligence officials began receiving termination notices under acting DNI Bill Pulte, two weeks into his tenure, with reporting indicating he was eyeing hundreds of firings. Those removed were described by leadership as "deep state" officials.
  • Trump said publicly that he expects Pulte to "find out some things about the rigged elections."
  • His previous intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, spent roughly 18 months looking for 2020 fraud evidence and found none. The White House plans to declassify thousands of documents to advance the stolen-election claim anyway.

Prohibited by Law: The DNI's election role is limited by law to foreign interference; the purge comes with instructions to find domestic 'rigged elections' evidence.

Sources

In Effect Prohibited by Law Force at the Polls Jun 24, 2026

ICE Agents Visit a Poll Worker at Her Job on Election Day

On Election Day, June 24, 2026, two ICE agents tracked down Syracuse poll worker Paigelynne Gonyea at her workplace carrying printouts of her Instagram posts and her driver's license, handed her a notice claiming she had "threatened ICE personnel," and pressed her to sign a form agreeing to delete her account.

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  • On Election Day, June 24, 2026, two ICE agents tracked down Syracuse poll worker Paigelynne Gonyea at her workplace carrying printouts of her Instagram posts and her driver's license, handed her a notice claiming she had "threatened ICE personnel," and pressed her to sign a form agreeing to delete her account.
  • Her offense: sharing an article naming the agent who shot Renee Good, captioned "I think today is a great day for Jonathan to be indicted."
  • She refused: "For ICE to come to me over a social media post just feels very 1984 to me... I'm kinda now even worried more about November."
  • The county elections commissioner noted the law bars law enforcement at polling places except in emergencies, with "no indication of that here." Rep. John Mannion demanded DHS explain who ordered the visit.

Prohibited by Law: Law bars law enforcement at polling places except in emergencies; the county elections commissioner said there was 'no indication of that here.'

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Jun 23, 2026

Trump Brags That a Phone Call to a Prosecutor Changed a Primary

At a June 2026 rally, Trump claimed he called U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli about California's primary, "I said, Do me a favor. Take a look", and that "about an hour after the call... Mr. Hilton has won... Had I not made that call, Steve Hilton would right now be watching the election from home."

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  • At a June 2026 rally, Trump claimed he called U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli about California's primary, "I said, Do me a favor. Take a look", and that "about an hour after the call... Mr. Hilton has won... Had I not made that call, Steve Hilton would right now be watching the election from home."
  • What actually happened: Hilton advanced under California's top-two system because more ballots were counted in the days after election night, as happens routinely. No evidence suggests any prosecutor altered a tally.
  • Either account is disqualifying: he directed federal law enforcement at an ongoing election, or he is telling supporters that doing so works. He framed it, openly, as a success story.

Sources

In Court Ruled Unlawful The Voter Data Dragnet Jun 22, 2026

Homeland Security Money Became Election Leverage, and a Judge Threw the Conditions Out

In June 2026 the administration moved to condition more than $1 billion in DHS grants, money that funds state and local terrorism prevention, infrastructure protection, and disaster preparedness, on states adopting its election changes.

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  • In June 2026 the administration moved to condition more than $1 billion in DHS grants, money that funds state and local terrorism prevention, infrastructure protection, and disaster preparedness, on states adopting its election changes.
  • To keep the funding, states would have to switch to hand-marked paper ballots and run their voter rolls through the contested DHS citizenship database. Refusers reportedly face roughly a 20% cut.
  • Jurisdictions forced to change include Delaware, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, and Los Angeles County. A former DOJ lawyer predicted the requirements "will be blocked in the courts."
  • On July 23, 2026, more than two dozen states sued in federal court in Rhode Island over the conditions, which by then extended to FEMA disaster aid: to keep the money, states would have to verify voter citizenship through a federal database, move toward hand-marked paper ballots, run federally prescribed election audits, and cooperate with ICE. The states argue conditioning appropriated funds this way violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Constitution's Spending Clause.
  • On September 28, 2026, U.S. District Judge Amir Ali vacated the election conditions and the 20 percent holdback in the FY2026 Homeland Security Grant Program, which affected over $200 million, in a suit by Nashville, Columbus and four Texas counties, and refused to limit the relief to those plaintiffs. "The statute does not authorize FEMA to withhold counterterrorism grants until states and high-risk urban areas achieve policy objectives on their own dime," he wrote. The states' separate suit over conditions on disaster aid is still pending.

Ruled Unlawful: On September 28, 2026 a federal judge held that FEMA exceeded its statutory authority by conditioning counterterrorism grants on election-administration changes, and vacated the conditions.

Sources

On the Record Constitutional Conflict Force at the Polls Jun 14, 2026

The Homeland Security Secretary Says He'd 'Throw Out the Constitution' to Stop Noncitizen Voting, and Won't Rule Out ICE at the Polls

On June 14, 2026, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin told CNN he would "throw out the Constitution" to ensure that only citizens vote, then walked it back moments later: "Throw it out as an argument."

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  • On June 14, 2026, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin told CNN he would "throw out the Constitution" to ensure that only citizens vote, then walked it back moments later: "Throw it out as an argument."
  • He said DHS is scrubbing state voter rolls and claimed it sees "thousands" registered with mail-out ballots, without naming a single state or roll.
  • Asked on CNN, "Are you willing to rule out sending ICE agents?", he answered, "No, what I said is that we would only be there if a threat" arose. Pressed, "So, you're not ruling it out?", he said, "No, keep in mind, why would ICE be there? Because only people that should be voting there is American citizens. There shouldn't be any immigration enforcement."
  • Every major study has found noncitizen voting to be vanishingly rare, and the Constitution assigns the administration of elections to the states.

Constitutional Conflict: The secretary named the Constitution itself as the obstacle to his aim; the Constitution assigns the administration of elections to the states, not to a federal enforcement agency.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The cabinet secretary who runs immigration enforcement floated putting his agents near polling places, and named the Constitution as the obstacle. Federal officers at a polling place do not have to arrest anyone to change who feels safe walking in.

Sources

In Effect Force at the Polls May 29, 2026

FBI Agents at the Front Doors of Election Officials

In late May 2026, FBI Director Kash Patel sent agents unannounced to the private homes of current and former Wisconsin election officials, chasing two debunked 2020 theories: a flash drive of supposedly altered absentee results and a claim that an Illinois man secretly printed Biden ballots.

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  • In late May 2026, FBI Director Kash Patel sent agents unannounced to the private homes of current and former Wisconsin election officials, chasing two debunked 2020 theories: a flash drive of supposedly altered absentee results and a claim that an Illinois man secretly printed Biden ballots.
  • It is part of a multi-state pattern: the Fulton County raid in Georgia, seizure of ballot images and data in Arizona, and ballot demands in Michigan.
  • Local officials fear the FBI will try to seize Wisconsin's absentee ballots, which a quirk of state law allows to be traced back to individual voters.
  • No outcome-altering fraud has ever been found in Wisconsin or any state in 2020.

Sources

Threatened Seizing the Machinery May 22, 2026

Officials Tried to Ban the Voting Machines Half the Country Uses

Reuters reported in May 2026 that Trump officials, led by White House election adviser Kurt Olsen, tried to ban Dominion voting machines used in roughly 27 states by having the Commerce Department declare their components a national security risk.

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  • Reuters reported in May 2026 that Trump officials, led by White House election adviser Kurt Olsen, tried to ban Dominion voting machines used in roughly 27 states by having the Commerce Department declare their components a national security risk.
  • The goal was to force much of the country onto hand-counted paper ballots, potentially before the 2026 midterms. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was reportedly unaware of the discussions.
  • The plan failed because officials could not find legal grounds to declare the machines a threat. No U.S. voting machine has ever been shown to have been hacked in an election, and about 98% of jurisdictions already produce auditable paper records.
  • Election-security expert Alex Halderman: switching to hand counting "would be chaotic and might facilitate cheating."
  • The push resumed before the midterms. CNN reported on September 10, 2026 that Trump allies, "including some inside the administration," are pressing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to use his supply-chain authority to ban certain voting machines over Chinese-made components. Emails obtained by American Oversight show activists Will Huff and Conrad Reynolds discussed election security with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles in August 2025; she connected them with Ed Martin at the Justice Department, and they sent him a "Proposed Ban Plan."
  • Huff wrote to Martin: "This can immediately force states to move to hand-marked and hand-counted ballots like the President wishes." The activists said on their podcast that Lutnick met them for more than two hours in August 2026 and "said he would be getting on it." Commerce did not respond to CNN and has taken no action.
  • DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin sent letters in August 2026 warning that foreign-made components could "potentially compromise election infrastructure at any stage of the supply chain." Voting-system vendors told CNN that foreign parts are common across industries, and that paper records allow any result to be audited.

Sources

In Effect Replacing the Referees May 19, 2026

Federal Money Is Withheld Until a State Frees an Election-System Felon

Tina Peters, the Colorado county clerk convicted in 2024 of breaching her county's election equipment chasing 2020 conspiracy theories, was serving nearly nine years. Trump's federal pardon had no legal effect on her state conviction, so, per Votebeat's reporting, the administration withheld unrelated federal funds from Colorado while Trump publicly campaigned for her release.

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  • Tina Peters, the Colorado county clerk convicted in 2024 of breaching her county's election equipment chasing 2020 conspiracy theories, was serving nearly nine years. Trump's federal pardon had no legal effect on her state conviction, so, per Votebeat's reporting, the administration withheld unrelated federal funds from Colorado while Trump publicly campaigned for her release.
  • In May 2026, Gov. Jared Polis commuted her sentence. His own state party censured him for it: "It sends a message to future bad actors that election tampering has consequences, unless you're friends with the president."
  • Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold: "A clear message is being sent to those willing to break the law and attack our democracy."
  • In June, Trump hosted Peters at the White House, repeating the false claim she was imprisoned for "finding Election Fraud."
  • On October 5, 2026, Peters met Trump in the Oval Office "on election integrity," according to former Trump Justice Department official Ed Martin; an unnamed source confirmed the meeting to ABC News. The White House would not comment. What was discussed rests on Martin's account.

Sources

On the Record Replacing the Referees May 17, 2026

The Acting Attorney General's 'Ton of Evidence' That the 2020 Election Was Rigged

On May 17, 2026, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told Fox News, "there's a ton of evidence that the election was rigged," adding, "That's not something that DOJ needs to tell you about." Asked whether there would be a definitive answer on whether 2020 was stolen, he said, "I'm not going to promise there's going to be a definitive answer."

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  • On May 17, 2026, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told Fox News, "there's a ton of evidence that the election was rigged," adding, "That's not something that DOJ needs to tell you about." Asked whether there would be a definitive answer on whether 2020 was stolen, he said, "I'm not going to promise there's going to be a definitive answer."
  • He said, "we have multiple investigations going on in Arizona, in Georgia — in Fulton County, Georgia." Democracy Docket reported that he could not explain why the Justice Department had not released the evidence.
  • As The Independent noted, the court cases, recounts and investigations that followed 2020 "have not yielded any proof" of Trump's claims that he won.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The nation's top law enforcement officer asserting a rigged election on television, while declining to promise his department can show it, is the message in itself: the claim does not need to be proven to be useful.

Sources

Threatened Force at the Polls May 10, 2026

Trump Promises an 'Election Integrity Army' in Every State

On May 10, 2026, Trump announced on Truth Social that Republicans will field an "Election Integrity Army" for the midterms, "much bigger and stronger" than 2024's poll-watching operation, without saying who would be in it or how large it would be.

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  • On May 10, 2026, Trump announced on Truth Social that Republicans will field an "Election Integrity Army" for the midterms, "much bigger and stronger" than 2024's poll-watching operation, without saying who would be in it or how large it would be.
  • It is the third parallel route to force at the polls floated in 2026, alongside Bannon's ICE threat and Hegseth's refusal to rule out following an order to deploy troops.
  • Sen. Chuck Schumer: "Donald Trump knows, his party knows, that they're at risk of losing this election in 2026, which is why they're working round the clock to tilt the scales unfairly in their favor."
  • On September 17, 2026, Defense Undersecretary for Policy Elbridge Colby was asked in a closed Senate Armed Services briefing whether he had ever discussed deploying the National Guard for voter security on Election Day. He said he had heard of such discussions but was not leading on the issue. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said he "never once said 'yes' or 'no.'"
  • The administration does have an answer on paper: Gen. Dan Caine wrote to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in August that there are "no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections." What Colby declined to do was repeat that under questioning.
  • Two federal suits were filed in the District of Columbia before Judge Loren AliKhan. LULAC v. Department of Homeland Security, filed September 10, 2026, pleads Administrative Procedure Act claims premised on 18 U.S.C. § 592. NAACP v. Department of Homeland Security, filed September 18 by nine organizations, pleads a single claim under Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act. A third, filed September 23 by the Democratic Party committees, pleads both theories and was noticed as related to the LULAC case.
  • Section 592 dates to an Act of February 25, 1865 and bars ordering troops or armed men to any place where an election is held. Congress repealed its exception for keeping the peace at the polls in 1909, leaving only the authority to repel armed enemies. Neither case had produced a ruling as of September 19.

Sources

In Effect Redrawing the Maps May 8, 2026

The Virginia Sequence: 'RIGGED,' a Raid, and a 4-3 Reversal

On April 21, 2026, Virginia voters approved a redistricting referendum 51.45% to 48.55% that could have shifted the state's delegation from 6-5 Democratic to as much as 10-1. The next morning Trump declared, in his first fraud claim about a 2026 election, "A RIGGED ELECTION TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT IN VIRGINIA," blaming a "massive Mail In Ballot Drop" (mail ballots are counted after in-person ballots in Virginia; that is procedure, not fraud).

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  • On April 21, 2026, Virginia voters approved a redistricting referendum 51.45% to 48.55% that could have shifted the state's delegation from 6-5 Democratic to as much as 10-1. The next morning Trump declared, in his first fraud claim about a 2026 election, "A RIGGED ELECTION TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT IN VIRGINIA," blaming a "massive Mail In Ballot Drop" (mail ballots are counted after in-person ballots in Virginia; that is procedure, not fraud).
  • On May 6, the FBI raided the office of the referendum's champion, Sen. Louise Lucas. On May 8, the Virginia Supreme Court struck the referendum down 4-3 on procedural grounds, with two Republican-appointed justices in dissent.
  • Trump celebrated the reversal as a "huge win" over a "horrible gerrymander", the same vote he had called rigged when it passed.
  • The ruling erased the one major Democratic counter-move in the post-Callais map war; no official, court, or observer had reported any irregularity in the vote itself.

Sources

In Effect Force at the Polls May 6, 2026

The FBI Searches the Office of the 82-Year-Old Legislator Behind a Redistricting Referendum

On May 6, 2026, the FBI searched the Portsmouth district office of Sen. L. Louise Lucas, the 82-year-old Democratic president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate and one of the Democratic architects of the redistricting referendum voters approved in April. Agents also went into a cannabis store she opened in 2021.

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  • On May 6, 2026, the FBI searched the Portsmouth district office of Sen. L. Louise Lucas, the 82-year-old Democratic president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate and one of the Democratic architects of the redistricting referendum voters approved in April. Agents also went into a cannabis store she opened in 2021.
  • The FBI said only that it was conducting a court-authorized search. A person familiar with the matter told the AP it was part of a corruption investigation.
  • Lucas said the raid could be political retribution for her role in the redistricting effort. Rep. Bobby Scott said, "it must be acknowledged that this FBI raid occurs in the broader context of President Trump's repeated abuse of the Department of Justice to target his perceived political opponents."
  • The investigation predates the vote. The Virginian-Pilot reported in July that, according to court records, a federal judge authorized the FBI to monitor Lucas's phone from March 6 to April 5, 2026, and that the intercepted communications included correspondence with journalists.

Sources

Threatened Unprecedented Constitutional Conflict Force at the Polls May 5, 2026

The Emergency-Powers Track: NSPM-7, 137 Statutory Powers, and the PEADs

Since March 2026, Trump allies have publicly pushed to invoke emergency powers around the midterms: federal agents at polling places, seizure of state election infrastructure, federalized election oversight.

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  • Since March 2026, Trump allies have publicly pushed to invoke emergency powers around the midterms: federal agents at polling places, seizure of state election infrastructure, federalized election oversight.
  • A New York Times analysis by Thomas Edsall mapped the architecture experts say makes that possible. NSPM-7, signed September 2025, directs agencies to pursue "domestic terrorist organizations," a category that does not exist in federal law, citing no statute. National emergency declarations unlock powers in 137 provisions of law, and terminating one requires a veto-proof supermajority. Classified PEADs can be activated by a presidential signature alone, with no court review before taking effect.
  • The Brennan Center's Elizabeth Goitein calls the congressional check "a very weak constraint." Keep Our Republic's Joel McCleary: the combined effect "has no precedent in American law outside wartime."
  • After the July primetime election address, Trump's own former White House special counsel Ty Cobb warned the speech was designed "to add the predicate that he needs to declare an emergency at or about the time of the elections."
  • In late July 2026, Steve Bannon put a date on it, saying he believes Trump will declare a national emergency by late August, claiming there would be "enough evidence by mid-August" of a "massive problem" of election fraud, the fraud roughly 60 courts, Barr, and CISA have found does not exist. Asked directly, Trump said he was not considering it and denied knowing about the proposal.

Why it's unprecedented: Keep Our Republic's Joel McCleary on the combined emergency architecture: it 'has no precedent in American law outside wartime.'

Constitutional Conflict: NSPM-7 cites no statute and no constitutional provision; 'domestic terrorist organization' is a category that does not exist in federal law.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

This is the card we most want to age badly. Nothing here has been activated. But predicates are being laid in public, by the administration's own former lawyers' account, and the infrastructure spending is real, and now a former Trump strategist has named a month. We track it so that if an "election emergency" arrives around late August or in October, nobody can say it came from nowhere.

Sources

On the Record Unprecedented Redrawing the Maps May 4, 2026

'If They Have to Vote Twice, So Be It': Trump Orders a Map Race

Days after Callais, Trump posted: "If they have to vote twice, so be it. We should demand that State Legislatures do what the Supreme Court says must be done," predicting "the Republicans will receive more than 20 House Seats in the upcoming Midterms!"

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  • Days after Callais, Trump posted: "If they have to vote twice, so be it. We should demand that State Legislatures do what the Supreme Court says must be done," predicting "the Republicans will receive more than 20 House Seats in the upcoming Midterms!"
  • Twenty seats exceeds the projected House majority margin; the directive announces an intent to decide chamber control before votes are cast.
  • Louisiana, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee moved in visible coordination within days.
  • Election lawyer Marc Elias called the Louisiana piece "both a redistricting power grab and a dry run for authoritarian election subversion this fall."

Why it's unprecedented: The coordination of a Supreme Court ruling, a presidential directive, governors' orders, and a public 20-seat target within days is unprecedented in modern U.S. history.

Sources

In Court Constitutional Conflict Redrawing the Maps May 4, 2026

Florida's Mid-Decade Map Favors Republicans in 24 of 28 Seats

On May 4, 2026, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a mid-decade congressional map drafted by his office, with 24 districts Trump carried in 2024 and four that Harris carried. The prior map elected 20 Republicans and eight Democrats.

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  • On May 4, 2026, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a mid-decade congressional map drafted by his office, with 24 districts Trump carried in 2024 and four that Harris carried. The prior map elected 20 Republicans and eight Democrats.
  • Voters sued within two hours under Florida's Fair Districts Amendment, approved by voters in 2010, which bars drawing districts with intent to favor a party. The map's drawer, Jason Poreda, had told the Legislature, "Partisan or electoral performance data was considered, but certainly not at the exclusion of all of the other standards." The complaint says partisan metrics were "mixed in" across the map.
  • The courts let the map stand for 2026: a circuit judge denied an injunction, an appeals court declined to reverse, and on June 10 the Florida Supreme Court, 6-1, refused to intervene. The merits case was not decided.

Constitutional Conflict: Florida's voter-enacted Fair Districts Amendment bars drawing maps with partisan intent; the map's drawer testified that partisan data "was considered."

Sources

In Effect Redrawing the Maps May 4, 2026

Alabama Moves to Undo Its Second Majority-Black District, and Says the Goal Out Loud

Two days after the Supreme Court's April 29 Callais ruling, Gov. Kay Ivey called a special session so Alabama could switch congressional maps. House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter and Senate President Pro Tem Garlan Gudger said, "we have a responsibility to give our state a fighting chance to send seven Republican members to Congress."

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  • Two days after the Supreme Court's April 29 Callais ruling, Gov. Kay Ivey called a special session so Alabama could switch congressional maps. House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter and Senate President Pro Tem Garlan Gudger said, "we have a responsibility to give our state a fighting chance to send seven Republican members to Congress."
  • The map in place, with two Democrat-held seats, came out of the 2023 Allen v. Milligan litigation, and a court had barred Alabama from changing it before 2030. Gudger thanked senators for working to "do our part to help President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, and the Republican Party maintain control of Congress."
  • After the Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered map, Ivey switched to the Legislature's 2023 map and set an August 11 special primary in four districts, and lawmakers nullified the May primary results there. Rep. Shomari Figures's district fell from 48% to 40% Black voting-age population.
  • Alabama was one of three states, with Louisiana and Tennessee, racing to change maps after Callais.

Sources

In Effect Replacing the Referees May 4, 2026

53 Election Deniers Are Running to Referee the Next Election

A States United Action analysis reported by NPR found at least 53 election-denying candidates running in 23 states (24 in States United's own release) for the statewide offices that certify elections, governor, secretary of state and attorney general, including in five presidential swing states.

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  • A States United Action analysis reported by NPR found at least 53 election-denying candidates running in 23 states (24 in States United's own release) for the statewide offices that certify elections, governor, secretary of state and attorney general, including in five presidential swing states.
  • In Arizona, deniers are running for all three certification roles at once. Andy Biggs, who won the Republican primary for governor, voted for the objection to Arizona's electors in Congress on January 6, 2021, and then-Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers testified that Biggs asked him that morning to support decertifying the state's electors.
  • In 2020, officials including Georgia's Brad Raffensperger and Arizona's Doug Ducey declined Trump's pressure. States United's CEO, Joanna Lydgate, told NPR, "it's incredibly important that we elect people who believe in our system and who believe in free and fair elections."

Sources

In Effect Redrawing the Maps May 1, 2026

Louisiana Cancels Its Own Primaries in the Middle of Voting

On May 1, 2026, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry suspended the state's U.S. House primaries by executive order, citing Callais, after more than 100,000 absentee ballots had already been mailed and some had been cast. Roughly 45,000 votes already cast were nullified.

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  • On May 1, 2026, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry suspended the state's U.S. House primaries by executive order, citing Callais, after more than 100,000 absentee ballots had already been mailed and some had been cast. Roughly 45,000 votes already cast were nullified.
  • A state court denied an emergency restraining order to keep the election on the ballot. The ACLU, the Elias Law Group, and a candidate all filed challenges.
  • On 60 Minutes, Landry said discarding the ballots "wasn't a big deal" and that those voters "will vote again in November."
  • Trump praised the move; Landry posted: "If there is one thing the Republican Party should learn from President Trump — it's to FIGHT!"

Our take — opinion, not reporting

An American governor canceled a federal election that was already underway, threw out tens of thousands of cast ballots, and faced no consequence beyond litigation. That precedent now exists, and November is the next test of it.

Sources

On the Record Prohibited by Law Force at the Polls Apr 29, 2026

The Defense Secretary Invents a Precedent for Troops at the Polls

Asked in April 2026 House testimony whether he would follow a hypothetical Trump order to deploy troops to polling places during the midterms, which Rep. Jill Tokuda noted would violate federal law, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth did not answer directly and instead claimed that under Biden, troops "were deployed to polling locations in 15 states" in 2024.

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  • Asked in April 2026 House testimony whether he would follow a hypothetical Trump order to deploy troops to polling places during the midterms, which Rep. Jill Tokuda noted would violate federal law, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth did not answer directly and instead claimed that under Biden, troops "were deployed to polling locations in 15 states" in 2024.
  • He repeated the claim to the Senate the next day. CNN contacted all 15 states; the 13 that responded all said none of their troops were at polling locations. Guard support for the 2024 election was cybersecurity or liaison work, ordered by governors, not by Biden.
  • CNN noted that Trump has not said he plans to send troops to polling locations in any future election.

Prohibited by Law: The deployment he was asked about would violate the federal law that bars sending troops to voting locations unless necessary to repel armed enemies of the United States.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The claim invents a precedent for exactly the deployment he was asked about. A false precedent offered under oath does work for whoever wants to cite it later.

Sources

In Effect Redrawing the Maps Apr 29, 2026

The Supreme Court Guts the Voting Rights Act on Numbers That Don't Add Up

On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais, striking down Louisiana's congressional map with two majority-Black districts and gutting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

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  • On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais, striking down Louisiana's congressional map with two majority-Black districts and gutting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
  • Justice Alito's majority opinion justified the result by claiming Black turnout now exceeds white turnout, a claim built on comparing total voting-age population instead of eligible voters. University of Florida elections expert Michael McDonald: "If I wanted to manipulate the numbers in a way that was favorable to the government's interest, I would be using voting age population." Counted properly, white turnout significantly exceeds Black turnout.
  • The ruling was released hours after all six conservative justices attended Trump's white-tie state dinner for King Charles III; none of the three Democratic-appointed justices attended.
  • The lead plaintiff, Phillip Callais, attended the January 6, 2021 'Stop the Steal' rally and posted photos from that day.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

A Supreme Court ruling is not itself rigging, even a wrong one. What earns Callais a place on this page is what it was for: within days, Trump publicly converted it into a seat count, and six states began redrawing maps mid-decade to hit the number.

Sources

In Court Constitutional Conflict The Voter Data Dragnet Apr 22, 2026

Alaska Quietly Hands Its Unredacted Voter Rolls to the DOJ

Under a memorandum of understanding signed in December 2025, Alaska's Republican lieutenant governor transferred the state's complete unredacted voter list, including full names, birth dates, home addresses, and driver's license or partial Social Security numbers, to the Trump DOJ.

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  • Under a memorandum of understanding signed in December 2025, Alaska's Republican lieutenant governor transferred the state's complete unredacted voter list, including full names, birth dates, home addresses, and driver's license or partial Social Security numbers, to the Trump DOJ.
  • The ACLU, the Electronic Privacy Information Center, the League of Women Voters of Alaska, and the Alaska Black Caucus sued in April 2026, asking a court to void the MOU, order the DOJ to destroy all copies, and bar future transfers.
  • ACLU attorney Theresa J. Lee: the state "has put both privacy and democracy at serious risk." Civil rights groups argue the program is designed to engineer purges of Democratic-leaning voters, voters with immigrant-sounding names, and voters of color.
  • Alaska is small, but the MOU is a template: if it survives, other Republican-led states can copy it before November.
  • The purge then arrived. On July 23, 2026, the state removed 3,048 people from its active voter list, many of them U.S. citizens wrongly flagged as noncitizens by the Alaska DMV. Elections director Carol Beecher blamed "old data" and said a normal annual check flags "more like 200 names," not 3,000. Those removed can vote only by producing extra documentation, the exact citizenship-flagging harm this data campaign was warned would cause.
  • On October 16, 2026, Alaska Superior Court Judge Adolf Zeman refused to dismiss the suit, writing that the state "has given DOJ carte blanche to submit whenever it pleases, a list of whosoever names it decides, for whatever reason DOJ determines, for any number of eligible voters." The memo also lets DOJ share the data with a private contractor. The claims now go to discovery; DOJ has asked Alaska to remove no voters.

Constitutional Conflict: The lawsuit alleges the unredacted transfer was unconstitutional; plaintiffs want the MOU voided and every federal copy destroyed.

Sources

Threatened Replacing the Referees Apr 19, 2026

'Arrests Coming Soon' for a Conspiracy 60 Courts Rejected

FBI Director Kash Patel went on Fox News in April 2026 and announced: "We are going to be making arrests, and it's coming — and I promise you, it's coming soon," claiming "we have the information that backs President Trump's claim" about 2020. He named no targets and cited no crimes.

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  • FBI Director Kash Patel went on Fox News in April 2026 and announced: "We are going to be making arrests, and it's coming — and I promise you, it's coming soon," claiming "we have the information that backs President Trump's claim" about 2020. He named no targets and cited no crimes.
  • The claims have been rejected by 60+ courts, by Trump's own attorney general ("no evidence of fraud that would change the outcome"), and by Trump's own CISA ("the most secure election in American history").
  • Michigan's attorney general read the announcement as an effort to "sow fresh doubts about electoral integrity ahead of midterms."

Sources

Blocked Ruled Unlawful The Voter Data Dragnet Apr 17, 2026

A Subpoena for the Home Addresses of 3,000 Election Workers

In April 2026 the Justice Department served a grand jury subpoena on Fulton County for its full 2020 election staff roster, "including names, home addresses, email addresses, and personal phone numbers," as The New Republic described it, reaching nearly 3,000 employees, temporary poll workers and volunteers.

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  • In April 2026 the Justice Department served a grand jury subpoena on Fulton County for its full 2020 election staff roster, "including names, home addresses, email addresses, and personal phone numbers," as The New Republic described it, reaching nearly 3,000 employees, temporary poll workers and volunteers.
  • Fulton County Commission Chair Robb Pitts said the purpose was "to intimidate workers in our county, to discourage people from voting." The county moved to quash it, arguing the demand could make poll workers less likely to serve in future elections. The Justice Department called the subpoena the "next step in the normal investigative process."
  • On July 7, 2026, U.S. District Judge William Ray, a Trump appointee, quashed it: "Given the low need for the subpoenaed information and the highly burdensome nature of the disclosure of the same, the Subpoena is unreasonable and must be quashed."

Ruled Unlawful: A federal judge quashed the subpoena as "unreasonable," calling its scope "staggering."

Sources

In Effect Unprecedented Replacing the Referees Apr 13, 2026

Nearly All of the 75 People Who Protected the 2020 Election Are Gone

A ProPublica investigation found that at least 75 federal officials were involved in safeguarding the 2020 result and that nearly all have resigned, been fired or been reassigned. They include the CISA specialists who established that the Antrim County voting-machine allegations were false.

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  • A ProPublica investigation found that at least 75 federal officials were involved in safeguarding the 2020 result and that nearly all have resigned, been fired or been reassigned. They include the CISA specialists who established that the Antrim County voting-machine allegations were false.
  • They have been replaced by roughly two dozen people in positions that could affect elections. Ten actively worked to reverse the 2020 vote; the rest are their associates. Some were hired from activist groups that are pillars of the election denial movement, and experts told ProPublica the movement has "merged with the federal government."
  • ProPublica concluded that the guardrails and people that held in 2020 "would largely be missing" today, though a few have endured: judges blocked key parts of a March 2025 executive order on voting, and some Republican state officials have fought DOJ demands for voter rolls.

Why it's unprecedented: Experts told ProPublica that 2026 will serve as "an unprecedented stress test of the integrity of American elections."

Sources

In Effect The Ballot Box Mar 26, 2026

Everything Becomes Hostage to the SAVE Act

The SAVE Act would require documentary proof of citizenship, a passport or birth certificate, to register to vote, and would end the online and mail registration used for 94% of registrations. More than 21 million eligible Americans lack ready access to those documents; only 21% of households earning under $50,000 have passports.

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  • The SAVE Act would require documentary proof of citizenship, a passport or birth certificate, to register to vote, and would end the online and mail registration used for 94% of registrations. More than 21 million eligible Americans lack ready access to those documents; only 21% of households earning under $50,000 have passports.
  • The verification systems it relies on are famously wrong: Virginia's purge flagged 94% citizens; North Carolina found 98% of flagged "noncitizens" were citizens; Kansas's version blocked 31,000 eligible citizens while catching virtually none.
  • To force it through, Trump shut down DHS for 40+ days over it (Sen. John Kennedy revealed Trump personally killed a bipartisan deal to pay TSA workers), had Sen. Cornyn reverse his career-long filibuster position, and in June canceled the signing of the biggest housing-affordability bill in a generation an hour before the ceremony, writing that it stays "cancelled until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT."
  • Trump privately told Republicans that banning mail ballots would "guarantee the midterms."
  • July 23, 2026: with the bill still stalled in the Senate, Trump pressed for as much of the SAVE Act as possible before the August recess. Leavitt said his "patience is running out" and named Majority Leader John Thune, who fired back that the White House should get the votes itself.
  • July 27, 2026: Trump escalated, posting that Thune should not let the Senate "leave town" until it passes the SAVE Act "or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER." Thune again said he does not have the votes for either.
  • September 30, 2026: Senate Republicans attached a photo-ID-to-vote requirement, which The Hill calls "a core element" of the SAVE America Act, to a bill banning members of Congress from buying new stocks. Cloture failed 53-47 on a party-line vote, short of the 60 needed. The day before, Trump said, "We must pass, and now can pass in theory very easily, the SAVE America Act."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

You don't hold airport security and housing policy hostage for an election-administration bill unless the bill is the point. By the administration's own private framing, it is: fewer people registering means better Republican math.

Sources

On the Record The Ballot Box Mar 25, 2026

The President Votes by Mail While Calling It 'Mail-In Cheating'

Palm Beach County records show Donald, Melania, and Barron Trump all voted by mail in a March 2026 Florida special election. The day before the election, Trump declared in Memphis: "Mail-in voting means mail-in cheating."

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  • Palm Beach County records show Donald, Melania, and Barron Trump all voted by mail in a March 2026 Florida special election. The day before the election, Trump declared in Memphis: "Mail-in voting means mail-in cheating."
  • Asked why he voted by mail while at Mar-a-Lago during in-person early voting, he answered, "Because I'm president of the United States," then claimed he had to be in Washington; a reporter fact-checked him to his face: "You were in Palm Beach, sir."
  • PolitiFact rated his fraud claim Pants on Fire; documented mail-ballot fraud runs about 4 cases per 10 million votes.
  • A Democrat then flipped his home district, the 29th state legislative seat Democrats have flipped since his second term began.
  • On October 3, 2026, a month before the midterms, he urged Republicans to use the same methods: "Whether you vote early, absentee, by mail, or in-person, we must 'swamp' the Radical Left Dumocrats with massive turnout!"
  • The next night, October 4, he posted that slow counts are fraud: results in "Detroit, Philadelphia, California, and numerous other U.S. Cities and States" will "often take weeks to Rig, I mean, calculate. Voting in America is CORRUPT!!!" Newsweek: "The difference in reporting speed is not evidence of fraud."

Sources

On the Record Constitutional Conflict The Narrative War Feb 27, 2026

'We're Entitled to It': The Third-Term Drumbeat

In his 2026 State of the Union: "this should be my third term." Two days later at a Texas rally: "We're entitled to it, because they cheated like hell in the second." In May, to a room of business leaders: he'll "get out of office in, let's say, eight or nine years from now."

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  • In his 2026 State of the Union: "this should be my third term." Two days later at a Texas rally: "We're entitled to it, because they cheated like hell in the second." In May, to a room of business leaders: he'll "get out of office in, let's say, eight or nine years from now."
  • The 22nd Amendment is unambiguous: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice."
  • In May 2026, four of Trump's federal judicial nominees refused to affirm to the Senate Judiciary Committee that the 22nd Amendment bars a third term. These are people who would sit in judgment of any future challenge.
  • Former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance's warning: do not dismiss this as "mere trolling."
  • At an Oval Office event on October 20, 2026, Trump referred to "the very beginning of my second term, or third term depending on the way you want to define it," according to the Roll Call Factbase transcript.

Constitutional Conflict: The 22nd Amendment is explicit: 'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.'

Sources

On the Record The Ballot Box Feb 19, 2026

'We Won't Lose a Race for 50 Years'

At a Georgia rally in February 2026, Trump said that eliminating mail-in ballots means Republicans "won't lose a race for 50 years," calling mail ballots "crooked as hell" and proposing to limit them to military, ill, and disabled voters.

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  • At a Georgia rally in February 2026, Trump said that eliminating mail-in ballots means Republicans "won't lose a race for 50 years," calling mail ballots "crooked as hell" and proposing to limit them to military, ill, and disabled voters.
  • He falsely claimed the U.S. is "the only country in the world" with mail voting; at least 34 countries use postal voting, including the UK, Germany, and Canada.
  • At an October 12, 2026 rally in Youngstown, Ohio, Trump repeated the idea: with the filibuster ended, "we will never lose an election again because we'll have really good safeguards," naming voter ID and proof of citizenship, according to the Roll Call Factbase transcript. In the same passage he said that if Democrats won Congress and the presidency, "I will be the last Republican president, because they will add about 12 more electoral votes." Snopes rated that quote real but missing context, since it was framed as a hypothetical.
  • Stating that a voting restriction guarantees your party never loses is a description of voter suppression, offered as the sales pitch.

Sources

In Effect Prohibited by Law The Ballot Box Feb 19, 2026

Georgia's Election Board Reprimands Musk's America PAC for Mailing Prefilled Absentee Ballot Applications

On February 19, 2026, the Georgia State Election Board voted to reprimand Elon Musk's America PAC for sending voters partially prefilled absentee ballot applications.

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  • On February 19, 2026, the Georgia State Election Board voted to reprimand Elon Musk's America PAC for sending voters partially prefilled absentee ballot applications.
  • Georgia law, O.C.G.A. 21-2-381, prohibits non-relatives from sending prefilled ballot applications. The board also found the mailings lacked the required disclaimer that they were not official government publications.
  • The investigation began in October 2024 after complaints from voters in Chattooga, Cherokee, Coweta, Floyd, and Whitfield counties; a police report was filed in January and security-camera footage documented at least one incident.
  • The penalty was a formal letter of reprimand, which was widely criticized as a slap on the wrist. Musk spent more than $250 million through America PAC to help elect Trump in 2024.

Prohibited by Law: The Georgia State Election Board found the mailings violated O.C.G.A. 21-2-381, which bars non-relatives from sending prefilled absentee ballot applications, and the state's disclaimer requirement.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The voter-fraud machinery that spent 2026 hunting for noncitizens on the rolls found an actual, adjudicated violation of ballot law in Georgia. It was committed by the president's largest donor, and it cost him a letter.

Sources

Threatened Constitutional Conflict The Ballot Box Feb 13, 2026

Trump Says There Will Be Voter ID in the Midterms 'Whether Approved by Congress or Not'

On February 13, 2026, Trump posted: "There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!" He added that if it could not get through Congress, he would present the requirement "shortly, in the form of an Executive Order."

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  • On February 13, 2026, Trump posted: "There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!" He added that if it could not get through Congress, he would present the requirement "shortly, in the form of an Executive Order."
  • The House had narrowly passed the SAVE America Act 218-213, requiring proof of citizenship and photo ID; Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called it dead on arrival in the Senate.
  • A federal judge had already struck down Trump's earlier election executive order as unconstitutional, writing that "our Constitution entrusts Congress and the states, not the president, with the authority to regulate federal elections."
  • Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution assigns the rules of federal elections to the states and to Congress. Election-law experts say the president has no authority to set them by decree.

Constitutional Conflict: Article I, Section 4 assigns federal election rules to Congress and the states; a federal judge had already struck down Trump's earlier election executive order, holding the Constitution entrusts that authority "not the president."

Our take — opinion, not reporting

A president announcing he will impose election rules whether or not the legislature agrees is not a policy dispute. It is a claim to a power the Constitution deliberately withheld from him, made out loud, in advance.

Sources

On the Record The Narrative War Feb 11, 2026

Trump Says Unfavorable Polling Should Be 'Virtually a Criminal Offence,' Then Gallup Ends 88 Years of Approval Tracking

After a January 22, 2026 New York Times/Siena poll put his approval at 40 percent against 56 percent disapproval, Trump posted that "Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offence" and that "something has to be done about Fake Polls! They are truly OUT OF CONTROL."

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  • After a January 22, 2026 New York Times/Siena poll put his approval at 40 percent against 56 percent disapproval, Trump posted that "Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offence" and that "something has to be done about Fake Polls! They are truly OUT OF CONTROL."
  • He announced the poll would be added to his $15 billion lawsuit against the New York Times, saying the paper "will be held fully responsible for all of their Radical Left lies and wrongdoing."
  • The 40 percent figure was consistent with other polling at the time; the RealClearPolitics average stood at about 42.5 percent.
  • On February 11, 2026, Gallup announced it would stop tracking presidential approval after roughly eight decades.
  • Trump's December 2024 suit against Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register, over a final 2024 poll showing Kamala Harris ahead in Iowa 47 to 44, was the first of these cases to reach a decision. On September 23, 2026, Judge Scott J. Beattie dismissed it with prejudice, holding it would fail even assuming the poll had been faked: "A poll is simply an estimate." A Trump spokesman said the case will be appealed to the Iowa Supreme Court.
  • On October 21, 2026, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr posted that broadcasters "are advised to avoid engaging in News Distortions or running Broadcast Hoaxes by airing Polls that would violate their regulatory obligations." He named no poll and announced no investigation, and no formal guidance has been published, Politico reported. The FCC's news-distortion policy reaches only deliberate distortion by licensed over-the-air stations.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Polling is not election machinery. It is the instrument the public uses to know where it stands before a vote, and a president threatening to criminalize the unflattering readings is trying to take that instrument away.

Sources

In Court Prohibited by Law Force at the Polls Feb 5, 2026

'You're Damn Right We're Going to Have ICE Surround the Polls'

Steve Bannon, on his War Room podcast: "You're damn right we're going to have ICE surround the polls come November."

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  • Steve Bannon, on his War Room podcast: "You're damn right we're going to have ICE surround the polls come November."
  • Asked about it the same day, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declined to rule it out: "I can't guarantee that an ICE agent won't be around a polling location in November," adding only that there were "no formal plans."
  • Federal law, 18 U.S.C. 592, makes it a felony for a federal officer to bring "any troops or armed men" to a place where an election is held unless the force is needed "to repel armed enemies of the United States."
  • On September 1, 2026, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said "ICE isn't there to patrol the polling places," but that "The only reason why we would be at polling places is if there is a threat to that polling place or we're serving a warrant on someone that we have been actively tracking down."
  • On September 10, Denver and a coalition of immigrant rights and voting groups sued to keep armed federal officers away from polling places under that law, citing reports of agents at polling places in San Antonio, Ventura County and Syracuse this year. DHS said "ICE is not planning operations targeting polling locations," and Tom Homan said "there is no plan for enforcement action at polling places."
  • A second suit, NAACP v. Department of Homeland Security (No. 1:26-cv-03263), was filed September 18 by nine organizations under Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act, naming Mullin, Attorney General Todd Blanche, FBI Director Kash Patel and Tom Homan among its defendants. The Justice Department's response: "The DOJ has never said it would send federal law enforcement to polling locations... Any suggestion otherwise is fearmongering." No deployment order has been documented; what is documented is officials declining to rule one out. A third suit followed on September 23 from the Democratic Party committees, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, against ICE, DHS, the FBI and their directors. Trump is not a defendant in any of them.
  • On October 7 the LULAC plaintiffs amended their complaint to add Hennepin County, the Justice Department and the FBI, and a Voting Rights Act claim, alleging that on October 5, the first day California drop boxes opened, ICE detained a man in a college parking lot next to a ballot drop-off location in Santa Maria. DHS confirmed the arrest but called claims it happened on campus "FALSE".

Prohibited by Law: A September 10, 2026 lawsuit argues the policy violates 18 U.S.C. 592, which bars federal officers from bringing "any troops or armed men" to a place where an election is held unless needed "to repel armed enemies of the United States."

Sources

On the Record Constitutional Conflict The Narrative War Feb 2, 2026

'The Republicans Ought to Nationalize the Voting'

On February 2, 2026, Trump said on the Dan Bongino Show: "We should take over the voting in at least — many, 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting." The Constitution assigns election administration to the states.

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  • On February 2, 2026, Trump said on the Dan Bongino Show: "We should take over the voting in at least — many, 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting." The Constitution assigns election administration to the states.
  • Two days later, on NBC, he said of the states that count votes, "If they can't do it honestly and it can't be done properly and timely, then something else has to happen." Asked next whether he would trust the midterm results if Republicans lost Congress: "I will if the elections are honest."
  • In the same interview he denied having used the word "nationalize," despite the recording, and named Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta: "There are some areas that are unbelievably corrupt." He offered no evidence.
  • Dartmouth election scholar Brendan Nyhan: "The last time he started talking like this, his allies minimized the risks and we ended up with Jan 6... These comments are a five-alarm fire for democracy."

Constitutional Conflict: Article I, Section 4 assigns election administration to the states. Schumer called the proposal 'outlandishly illegal.'

Sources

In Effect Unprecedented Prohibited by Law Seizing the Machinery Jan 28, 2026

The FBI Raids a County Election Office and Seizes the 2020 Ballots

On January 28, 2026, the FBI raided the Fulton County, Georgia elections office and seized roughly 700 boxes of 2020 ballots, along with tabulator tapes, voter rolls, and electronic ballot images. ABC News called the seizure "apparently unprecedented."

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  • On January 28, 2026, the FBI raided the Fulton County, Georgia elections office and seized roughly 700 boxes of 2020 ballots, along with tabulator tapes, voter rolls, and electronic ballot images. ABC News called the seizure "apparently unprecedented."
  • Trump personally ordered Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to Atlanta. She was physically present at the raid, despite the DNI being barred by law from domestic law enforcement, and she put agents on speakerphone with Trump, who thanked them in what officials described as a "pep talk."
  • The warrant was premised on 2020 fraud claims that roughly 60 courts, Trump's own attorney general, and Georgia's Republican secretary of state had already rejected.
  • Fulton County called the warrant improper and is fighting in court to keep the materials in Georgia under seal.

Why it's unprecedented: ABC News called the federal seizure of a state's 2020 ballots 'apparently unprecedented,' and no Director of National Intelligence had ever joined a domestic law-enforcement raid.

Prohibited by Law: Federal law bars the DNI from participating in domestic law enforcement. Gabbard was physically present, on the president's orders.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Five years after an election he lost by 12,000 votes in the state, the president sent the FBI and his intelligence chief into the county that counted it. Whatever this is, it is not evidence-gathering. It is a demonstration to every election office in the country of what happens to jurisdictions he loses.

Sources

In Effect The Voter Data Dragnet Jan 25, 2026

The Attorney General Ties Federal Enforcement Decisions to a State's Voter Rolls

In January 2026, Attorney General Pam Bondi sent Gov. Tim Walz a letter requesting access to Minnesota's voter rolls for a federal "compliance review," along with the state's Medicaid and SNAP records, and urging repeal of sanctuary policies.

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  • In January 2026, Attorney General Pam Bondi sent Gov. Tim Walz a letter requesting access to Minnesota's voter rolls for a federal "compliance review," along with the state's Medicaid and SNAP records, and urging repeal of sanctuary policies.
  • News outlets across the spectrum reported that the letter tied future federal enforcement decisions in Minnesota to the state's cooperation.
  • The demand arrived while federal agents were deployed in Minneapolis, making the leverage explicit: enforcement posture on one side of the scale, voter data on the other.

Sources

In Effect Unprecedented Prohibited by Law Seizing the Machinery May 1, 2025

Intelligence Officials Take Puerto Rico's Voting Machines on a Venezuela Pretext

In May 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard's office obtained Puerto Rico's voting machines, with the local U.S. attorney, Homeland Security Investigations, and the FBI facilitating the handover, to investigate claims that Venezuela had hacked them.

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  • In May 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard's office obtained Puerto Rico's voting machines, with the local U.S. attorney, Homeland Security Investigations, and the FBI facilitating the handover, to investigate claims that Venezuela had hacked them.
  • No evidence of Venezuelan interference was found. A later teardown found ordinary chips from China, Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, no Venezuelan code, and no hacking.
  • Sen. Mark Warner: "Absent a foreign nexus, intelligence agencies have absolutely no lawful role in domestic election administration. This is exactly the kind of overreach Congress wrote the law to prevent."
  • Puerto Rico does not vote in presidential elections. Election experts read the episode as a test run for seizing machines somewhere that lacked the political power to resist.

Why it's unprecedented: Election experts called ODNI's hands-on role in election infrastructure unprecedented; domestic election security belongs to states and law enforcement, not spy agencies.

Prohibited by Law: Sen. Warner: absent a foreign nexus, intelligence agencies have 'absolutely no lawful role in domestic election administration.' No foreign nexus was found.

Sources

2020–2025 · Before this record

The prehistory

The 2026 campaign did not start in 2026. These are the documented precedents — the same claims, aimed at elections he had already run in. Every entry links to primary sources, and all 7 count toward the trust counter at the top of the page.

2020 2 entries

  • Nov 4
    The Big Lie Begins

    Beginning on election night 2020, Trump claimed the election was stolen. Dozens of campaign and ally lawsuits were dismissed; his own attorney general said the DOJ found no outcome-changing fraud; an AP investigation found fewer than 475 potential fraud cases across six battleground states. CREW later documented 500+ Truth Social posts repeating the conspiracy claims.

    AP ↗CNBC ↗Washington Post ↗CREW ↗

  • Dec 14
    The Fake Electors Scheme

    Trump and allies organized fake slates of electors in seven states Biden won: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. On December 14, 2020, the fake electors met and signed false certificates that were sent to Congress, groundwork for rejecting the real votes on January 6. Trump and 18 others were later indicted in Georgia's RICO case; multiple fake electors pleaded guilty.

    National Archives ↗January 6 Committee Report, Chapter 3 ↗Just Security ↗NBC News ↗

2021 2 entries

  • Jan 2
    'I Just Want to Find 11,780 Votes'

    In a recorded call, Trump pressured Georgia's Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger: 'All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state.' Raffensperger refused. The full audio is public.

    Washington Post ↗

  • Jan 6
    January 6

    After telling supporters to 'fight like hell,' Trump's crowd attacked the Capitol to stop certification. Five people died in connection with the attack and more than 140 police officers were injured. Rioters erected gallows and chanted 'Hang Mike Pence' while Trump tweeted that Pence lacked 'the courage.' He was impeached for incitement of insurrection, with the most bipartisan conviction vote in history. More than 1,500 people were charged.

    NPR ↗FactCheck.org ↗House January 6 Committee ↗Newsweek ↗

2022 1 entry

  • Dec 3
    Calling for the 'Termination' of the Constitution

    On Truth Social, Trump wrote that a 'Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,' and suggested he should be reinstated or a new election held. Pence: 'Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be President.' Trump never retracted it.

    CNN ↗NBC News ↗

2024 1 entry

  • Nov 1
    'The Only Way We Lose Is If They Cheat'

    Before the 2024 election, Trump repeated pre-emptive fraud claims: 'If I lose, it was rigged,' 'The only way we lose is if they cheat,' 'They're already cheating in Pennsylvania.' Then he won, and the claims stopped instantly, about the same machines, the same mail ballots, the same officials. He later said of 2024: 'I believe there was cheating... but it was too big to rig.' The rule the record shows: elections are rigged exactly when he loses.

    CNN transcript ↗The Independent ↗

2025 1 entry

  • Jan 20
    Blanket Pardons for January 6

    On his first day back in office, Trump granted clemency to roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants, including Oath Keepers and Proud Boys leaders convicted of seditious conspiracy and more than 600 people convicted of assaulting police. The pardons wiped an estimated $1.3 billion in restitution and recast the attack on the election's certification as a wrong done to the attackers.

    DOJ ↗Washington Post ↗NPR ↗

In order

The sequence

Every documented action, oldest first — 70 of 71 have come since January 2026. Click any entry to open its full record, with sources, above.

May 2025 1 action

January 2026 2 actions

February 2026 7 actions

March 2026 2 actions

April 2026 6 actions

May 2026 13 actions

June 2026 4 actions

July 2026 11 actions

August 2026 6 actions

September 2026 16 actions

October 2026 3 actions

The stated reason

The premise: the elections were already secure

Every action on this page is justified as a response to fraud, above all voting by noncitizens. Before judging the response, measure the problem. Here is what the people who looked hardest found. Most of them are Republicans.

0.0001%
Suspected noncitizen votes, 2016

The Brennan Center asked election officials in 42 jurisdictions across 12 states, covering 23.5 million votes and 8 of the 10 jurisdictions with the largest noncitizen populations. About 30 cases were referred for investigation. In 40 of the 42 jurisdictions, the number was zero.

Brennan Center

31
Credible impersonation cases in one billion ballots

Loyola law professor Justin Levitt tracked every credible allegation of in-person voter impersonation from 2000 to 2014. A separate News21 review of 2,068 alleged fraud cases since 2000 found 10 impersonation cases, about one for every 15 million voters.

Washington Post (Levitt) · News21 / Arizona State

20
Noncitizens Georgia found on 8.2 million registrations

Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger's October 2024 audit, which he called "the most comprehensive citizenship check ever conducted in Georgia." Nine of the 20 had ever voted. A September 2026 audit of 7.9 million registrations found the rolls more than 99.9 percent accurate.

CNN · Georgia Recorder · WSB-TV (2026 audit)

0 for 21
Trump's DOJ in court demanding state voter rolls

About thirty suits against 29 states and D.C., and twenty-one straight losses as of August 6, 2026. Twelve of the first twenty came from Republican-appointed judges, eight of them Trump appointees. A federal judge in Oregon wrote that the presumption of regularity the government normally enjoys "no longer holds."

Democracy Docket · Bloomberg Government · Democracy Docket (Oregon ruling) · NBC News tracker

Who looked What they looked at What they found
Existing federal lawOn the books since 1993 and 1996 What already stops a noncitizen from registering or voting A sworn citizenship attestation on every form, a federal database check, and up to a year in prison plus deportation. The National Voter Registration Act requires every applicant to attest to citizenship under penalty of perjury (52 U.S.C. 20508). States check registrations against the Department of Homeland Security's SAVE database; that check is how Georgia caught every noncitizen who tried to register. Voting as a noncitizen is a federal crime under 18 U.S.C. 611 and makes the voter deportable without a conviction. 52 U.S.C. 20508 · 18 U.S.C. 611 · CRS on immigration consequences · Georgia Secretary of State
CISA, Attorney General Barr, and about 60 courtsNovember 2020 to early 2021 Every allegation about the 2020 election "The most secure in American history." No fraud "on a scale that could have effected a different outcome." One minor court win in roughly 60 cases. The joint statement of November 12, 2020 was signed by Trump's own cybersecurity agency and the bipartisan associations of state election officials: "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised." Georgia counted its ballots three times, by hand and by machine. Michigan's Republican-led Senate Oversight Committee: "no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud." CISA joint statement · NPR (Barr) · Brookings (court record) · CBS News (Michigan Senate report) · AJC (Georgia recounts)
Trump's own campaign2020 to 2021, reported 2023 About $1.5 million paid to two research firms to find fraud in five swing states "No reason to believe the final vote totals in five key states were fraudulent." The reports were never released. Berkeley Research Group and Simpatico Software were hired by the campaign after the election. Ken Block of Simpatico: "Every fraud claim I was asked to investigate was false." The Associated Press separately reviewed the six battleground states and found fewer than 475 potential fraud cases against Biden's combined margin of 311,257 votes. Washington Post · CNN · PBS (AP review) · The Hill (AP review)
Cyber Ninjas, hired by Arizona Senate Republicans2021 A hand count of 2.1 million Maricopa County ballots Biden gained 360 votes on the official count. The review Trump's allies commissioned and promoted found Biden with 99 more votes and Trump with 261 fewer than the certified canvass. NPR · CNBC
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R)2022 Every registration since 1997, checked against the federal SAVE database 1,634 noncitizens tried to register in 25 years. None were added to the rolls. None voted. From the secretary's own release: "All 2,258 individuals were placed in pending status and not added to the voter rolls. None of these individuals have cast ballots in Georgia elections." The existing checks caught every one. Georgia Secretary of State · WALB
Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost (R)2024 More than 600 referrals from the secretary of state, out of 8 million registered voters Six indictments. "Not enough that it would have changed any of those elections." Only 138 referrals alleged illegal voting; all six people indicted were lawful permanent residents, and one had died two years earlier. Yost: this "should enable everybody to take a deep breath and be more confident that our elections are, in fact, safe and secure." Ohio prosecutors said the referrals "often lack minimal evidence necessary to pursue charges." Ohio Capital Journal · Statehouse News Bureau
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R)2024 to 2025 2,176 voters challenged two weeks before Election Day; 1.6 million votes cast 277 confirmed noncitizens and 35 counted ballots. Nearly nine in ten of those challenged were citizens. The federal SAVE check Pate later obtained confirmed 277 of the 2,176 as noncitizens, about 12 percent. Thirty-five noncitizen ballots were counted and five rejected, in an election of roughly 1.6 million votes. Iowa Secretary of State · Iowa Public Radio
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R)2024 Announced 6,500 noncitizens removed from the rolls, about 2,000 with a voting history 581 had been identified as noncitizens. The rest had not answered a letter. At least nine U.S. citizens were wrongly removed. ProPublica, the Texas Tribune and Votebeat traced the numbers to the secretary of state's own report. The governor's press release was later edited to say "potential noncitizens." Votebeat · ProPublica
Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen (R)2024 3,251 voters inactivated as suspected noncitizens A federal judge found an apparent error rate above 50 percent. At least 717 citizens were purged. Judge Anna Manasco, a Trump appointee, wrote that Allen "later admitted that his purge list included thousands of United States citizens" and blocked the program for violating the National Voter Registration Act's 90-day quiet period. Alabama Reflector · NPR · Campaign Legal Center
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D)July 2026 A Motor Vehicle Commission software error, 2023 to 2024 About 6,600 noncitizens registered by mistake and about 400 voted. The state found and reported it. Trump said the number was 35,152. This is the largest confirmed case on record, and it belongs here. The registrants were Democrats, Republicans and mostly unaffiliated, and the governor said there was "no evidence at this time that any elections were swayed." FactCheck.org found the president's figure more than five times the state's. NBC News · FactCheck.org · New Jersey Monitor
Trump's own Justice Department and DHSJanuary 2025 to mid-2026 A national hunt for noncitizen voters among 150 million 2024 ballots Fewer than 150 referrals, 41 charged, 14 convictions through May 2026. DHS claimed 16,000 noncitizens on Nevada's rolls and confirmed 185. ProPublica's count from court records. The department's own maximal figure, given to the Daily Signal in September 2026, is 50 charged and 17 convicted since January 2025. Pennsylvania said DHS "did not have high confidence" in its list of 14,576 names; New Jersey and Pennsylvania asked for documentation DHS did not provide. A Minnesota federal prosecutor: "The entire process has been dysfunctional." ProPublica · Daily Signal (conservative) · NPR · MS NOW
FBI Director Kash PatelJanuary to June 2026 A raid on Fulton County's election office (600 boxes of 2020 ballots), a Maricopa subpoena, and home visits to Milwaukee officials "I promise you, it's coming soon." No arrests, no evidence released, and the acting attorney general will not promise "a definitive answer." Patel told Fox News on April 19, 2026 that arrests over 2020 were imminent. As of June, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the Fulton investigation had "failed to deliver so far." Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche: "I'm not going to promise that there's going to be a definitive answer." Democracy Docket · Votebeat · Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Our take — opinion, not reporting

The administration's case rests on a fraud that the people best placed to find it cannot find. Republican secretaries of state audited their own rolls and found cases in the dozens, in states with millions of voters. Trump's own campaign paid for a search and buried the answer. His own Justice Department has lost twenty-one straight suits for voter data, and his own prosecutors have produced fourteen convictions by ProPublica's count, seventeen by the department's own, out of a hundred and fifty million voters. Errors exist, and we list the biggest one above, because New Jersey found it and said so. What the record does not contain is the thing every card on this page is justified by. When the stated problem is this small and the response is this large, the response is the point.

The bill behind the pressure

The SAVE Act, in the data

The president calls it a "National Emergency." He held a housing bill hostage for it and demanded the Senate kill the filibuster to pass it. Here is what the bill requires, who it would stop, and what happened the one time a state tried it.

21.3M
Citizens without ready access to proof of citizenship

9.1 percent of voting-age citizens, in a 2023 survey by the Brennan Center and the University of Maryland. About 3.8 million have no such document at all. 11 percent of citizens of color lack ready access, against 8 percent of white citizens.

Brennan Center · UMD survey results (PDF)

146M
Citizens without a valid passport

A passport is the simplest document the bill accepts. State Department data put valid passports at 0.48 per person. Fewer than a third of adults hold one in West Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma; about one in five earning under $50,000 does.

USAFacts (State Dept. data) · Center for American Progress

31,089
Kansans blocked from registering under the same rule

The only state to run a comparable law, 2013 to 2018. The blocked applicants were 12.4 percent of new registrations. Kansas could show 39 confirmed noncitizens registered over 14 years, 0.002 percent of voters. The Tenth Circuit struck the law down; the Supreme Court declined to hear the appeal.

Fish v. Schwab, 10th Cir. (PDF) · ACLU of Kansas

< 6%
Registrations done in person today

About 80 million Americans register or update a registration each cycle; fewer than 6 percent do it at an election office. The bill requires anyone using the mail form to present papers in person, and makes every other method conditional on documents at the time of application.

15 secretaries of state to Congress (PDF) · Bill text, Rules Committee Print 119-19 (PDF)

What the bill's backers say What the record shows
"The SAVE America Act will ensure that our federal elections are decided by U.S. citizens, and U.S. citizens alone."Rep. Chip Roy and Sen. Mike Lee, sponsors, January 29, 2026 Noncitizen registration is already a federal crime, and every state that has looked has found it in the dozens, not the thousands. Kansas: 39 confirmed noncitizen registrations in 14 years, a share a federal appeals court called "statistically indistinguishable from zero." New Hampshire: 8 noncitizen cases in 8.3 million ballots cast from 1998 to 2024, per the judge who struck down its 2024 proof-of-citizenship law. Utah: one noncitizen among about 1.8 million active voters. Alaska: 70 possible cases since 2015. Rep. Roy press release · Fish v. Schwab (PDF) · New Hampshire Bulletin · Brennan Center state tracker · Sen. Murkowski
"Anyone with a REAL ID can avoid them."National Review, on the bill's document hurdles A standard REAL ID does not show citizenship, so the roughly 140 million already issued would not qualify on their own. The bill accepts a REAL ID only if it "indicates the applicant is a citizen of the United States." Most states' cards do not. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who supports voter ID and opposes this bill: "Alaska's REAL IDs do not, so you would need to present a passport, certified birth certificate or another valid document." A military ID qualifies only with a service record showing a U.S. birthplace. Bill text (PDF) · 15 secretaries of state (PDF) · Sen. Murkowski · National Review
Married women who changed their name can use a birth certificate and an affidavit.The bill's defenders, and PolitiFact's March 2026 check True of the 2026 text, and worth saying plainly. It still puts a new step between roughly 69 million women and the registration form. Pew found 79 percent of married women took their husband's surname. The Center for American Progress estimates about 69 million women hold a birth certificate that no longer matches their legal name. The 2026 bill lets a state accept "additional documentation" or a signed affidavit for a prior name, through a process each state must build under Election Assistance Commission guidance due 10 days after enactment. PolitiFact's verdict: the bill "doesn't eliminate voting rights but adds procedural hurdles." PolitiFact · Pew Research Center · Center for American Progress
"There are accommodations for those who don't have documentation."Sen. Mike Lee The accommodation is an in-person visit, and an election official who registers someone without papers commits a new federal crime. Mail applicants "shall not be registered" unless they present documents "in person" at an election office. The bill adds "registering an applicant to vote ... who fails to present documentary proof of United States citizenship" to the list of federal election offenses and lets private parties sue the official. Republican county clerks in Idaho warned of a "mass exodus of poll workers." Alaska's Murkowski: registering "could mean purchasing plane tickets," with a two-month wait for certified documents. The rules take effect the day the bill is signed. Bill text (PDF) · Spokesman-Review · Sen. Murkowski · Native American Rights Fund
"The American people support it by an 80/20 margin."Sen. Jon Husted The Republicans who would have to run it, and the party's own editorial pages, do not. Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson (R): the bill "would be impossible to implement," and "I can count on zero fingers the number of times Sen. Lee has reached out to ask how his bill will affect our state." National Review: "it is prudent not to swat a fly with a sledgehammer... think dozens, not thousands." The Wall Street Journal editorial board called ending the filibuster for it "a terrible trade." Sen. Thom Tillis called it "theater." Five of six Idaho county clerks quoted by the Spokesman-Review, all Republicans, oppose it. The Senate has rejected it five times in 2026, twice at 48-50, with Collins, Murkowski, McConnell and Tillis joining every Democrat. Sen. Husted · Utah News Dispatch (via Yahoo) · National Review · The Hill (WSJ editorial) · Fox News (June 4 vote) · NPR (June 4 vote)
"The desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency."Trump, canceling a housing-bill signing, June 24, 2026 Two federal courts have ruled the president cannot impose the rule himself. What followed was leverage, not evidence. His March 2025 executive order directing proof of citizenship on the federal form was permanently blocked in October 2025 ("the President lacks the authority to direct such changes") and again in June 2026 (the Constitution "does not grant the President any specific powers over elections"). He then refused to sign the ROAD to Housing Act, which passed 358-32 and 85-5, until the Senate passed the SAVE Act; it became law without his signature on July 11. On July 25 he posted: "Terminate the Filibuster... and PASS THE SAVE AMERICA ACT." In March he told Republican lawmakers that the mail-ballot ban he wants added to it is "the only way to guarantee the midterms." Votebeat (Oct. 2025 ruling) · NBC News (June 2026 ruling) · NBC News (housing bill) · CNBC (law without signature) · Trump's Truth Social post, July 25 · CNBC ("guarantee the midterms")

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Voter suppression is a strong phrase, so here is the standard we hold it to: a rule that stops far more eligible citizens than ineligible ones, adopted with that ratio in plain view. Kansas ran the experiment. It blocked 31,089 registrations to catch a few dozen noncitizens over two decades, and a federal appeals court called the noncitizen share statistically indistinguishable from zero. The SAVE Act is the Kansas rule for the whole country, effective the day it is signed, with a federal crime attached for the clerk who lets someone through. The people most likely to lack a passport or a matching birth certificate are the young, the poor, the rural, women who changed their name, and voters of color. The president has told Republican lawmakers what the package is for: to "guarantee the midterms." We take him at his word.

82 sources in these two sections, separate from the 444 on the cards above. Every number links to where it came from.

Reading the record

The pattern

Analysis — our interpretation of the sourced record above

Take the 71 cards above as one story and a shape emerges. The machinery moves first: ballots seized, the certification agency emptied, the post office deputized. The data comes next: voter files demanded from every state that will hand them over, and sued for where they won't. Then the people: the officials who protected 2020 replaced, the analysts who refuse reassigned or fired, election deniers running for the offices that certify the next race. And over all of it, the narrative — rigged, stolen, corrupt — repeated until any result that goes the wrong way arrives pre-delegitimized.

The record also shows the counterforce. Courts have ruled against the voter-data campaign twenty-one straight times, eight of the first twenty rulings from Trump-appointed judges. The sections above measure the fraud those actions are justified by, and find it in the dozens. States have refused. A bipartisan commission referred the world's richest man to prosecutors. The system is not gone — it is under load, and some of it is holding.

He doesn't need a coup if he controls who counts, who certifies, and who can vote. He just needs to call it an election.

That sentence is our thesis, and it is an opinion. The 444 sources above are not.

Dated triggers

What to watch

The record above is history. These are the dates and open threats where it becomes the future.

  • Decided Aug 24 The Supreme Court mail-ballot application. Decided. On August 24 the Court granted the DOJ's emergency application 6-3 and lifted the injunction covering the 23 states and D.C. that sued, ruling they sued too soon rather than that the order is lawful, and adding that implementing measures may still be unlawful. A second, nationwide injunction from August 11 was not before the Court and still blocks implementation. That one injunction is now the only thing standing between the order and November. See the card.
  • Recess passed The SAVE Act. Trump pressed the Senate to pass the SAVE Act, or "TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER," before the August recess. Majority Leader Thune said he had the votes for neither. On September 30 Senate Republicans attached a photo-ID-to-vote requirement to a bill banning members of Congress from buying new stocks, and cloture failed 53-47 on a party-line vote, short of the 60 needed. Watch whether the failure feeds the push for an executive-order route instead. See the card.
  • Bannon's date passed The "national emergency" watch. Steve Bannon said in late July he believes Trump will declare a national emergency by late August, claiming there will be "enough evidence by mid-August" of election fraud, the fraud courts, Barr, and CISA all found does not exist. Trump denied considering it in July. On August 11, asked directly whether he would declare a "national security emergency for elections," he answered: "Let me just say that stranger things have happened, OK? I'll leave it at that." Bannon's late-August window passed without a declaration, and as of this update none has been made. Trump has not ruled it out. See the card.
  • Ruling pending Washington's voter rolls. The DOJ's demand for Washington State's voter rolls was argued August 4 and is undecided. The department is 0 for 21 in these suits, having lost every resolved case; a loss here would be the 22nd. See the card.
  • Handed off The Musk charging decision. The 40 days after the July 14 referral passed without one. On August 7, Brown County DA David Lasee said his office had a conflict of interest, without saying what it was, and requested a special prosecutor. La Crosse County DA Tim Gruenke now holds the election-bribery question over the $1 million voter checks, on no announced timetable. See the card.
  • Decided Sept 14 The Supreme Court and the mail-ballot rule. Judge Talwani preliminarily enjoined the USPS rule on September 4, finding that "Congress has never delegated its Elections Clause power to the USPS" and that implementation this close to the election "threatens disenfranchisement of millions." The Justice Department asked the Supreme Court for a stay on September 6, and responses were due September 9. That day, Republican secretaries of state from six states and Utah's lieutenant governor urged the Court not to let the rule take effect for November, on timing grounds alone. On September 14 the Court denied the stay, with Justices Alito and Thomas dissenting, after Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, had separately blocked the rule. The order covers only this year's elections; Justice Kavanaugh suggested the rule may be lawful for later ones. September 19 is the federal deadline for states to send ballots to military and overseas voters, which makes any late change harder to absorb. In Florida, Leon County's voluntarily submitted ballot envelope was rejected on September 2 because two lines sat 0.014 of an inch too close together, then approved on appeal September 10, a preview of the review the rule would require. On September 17 the Postmaster General confirmed the Postal Service had stopped building the system, and an internal memo told staff the rules would not be enforced this cycle. He also said the agency will keep pushing barcoded envelopes in future elections through pricing. See the card.
  • Oct 8, 2026 The White House press ban. On September 24 Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, granted a temporary restraining order in Cable News Network, Inc. v. Trump. Reporters from all three outlets were turned away that morning despite it, and their passes were restored that day. That evening CNN and MS NOW reporters were kept out of Xi Jinping's state-dinner arrival, an event the order does not clearly cover. The television pool, suspended since September 21, resumed on September 25. The order runs fourteen days, to October 8, and on September 28 the outlets asked for a preliminary injunction to keep their access until the case is decided. The White House has since kept CNN out of the television pool twice, for Air Force One on September 26 and for a trip to Texas and Oklahoma on October 1; the order covers the White House grounds, not pool travel. On October 5 it kept Politico off Air Force One on Politico's print-pool day, calling the plane "a privilege not a right." Before any ruling, Trump said he would appeal "almost without question." Watch the injunction ruling, whether the White House appeals, whether it keeps the outlets out of individual events, and whether the New York Times and Washington Post, which Trump named but did not ban, follow. See the card.
  • Decided Sept 25 Missouri's map. The Eighth Circuit ordered Missouri to use the Trump-backed 2025 map in November, stayed until September 28 so the Supreme Court could act. On September 25 the Court stayed that order, with no noted dissents, and told the lower courts that "the 2022 map—not the 2025 map—must be used in the 2026 congressional election." It was the third time the fight had reached the justices in three weeks. Trump responded that the Court "will just not let Missouri have an Election Victory." See the card.
  • Deadline passed DHS's "Unlawful Voter Initiative." A whistleblower alleges immigration officers were told to pose as voters on state voter-lookup sites, at a quota of 40 people a day, in a hunt for noncitizen voting. Sens. Schumer and Padilla asked DHS to stop and to answer their questions by September 21. That date passed, and as of this update no reply from DHS to the senators has been made public; its spokesperson has told reporters the story is the media "conjuring controversy out of commonplace law enforcement." Eighteen senators have asked the DHS inspector general to investigate, Virginia's attorney general has told DHS to preserve its records, and California's two senators have asked the state's attorney general to review it. No inspector general, court or state has made a finding. Watch whether the inspector general opens a review and whether any state goes beyond letters. See the card.
  • Ruling pending DHS's voter fraud surge, in court. San Francisco, Santa Clara County, two nurses' unions and Voto Latino have asked a federal judge in Northern California to stop DHS from sending agents to citizens' homes to question them about voter eligibility. A preliminary-injunction hearing was set for October 1, and no ruling had been reported as of this update. The surge guidance runs to mid-October, and voting opens in seven of the nine states it names before then. See the card.
  • Date passed The State Citizenship Lists. A section of the March executive order that the mail-ballot litigation never reached directs federal agencies to send every state a list of people they have confirmed to be citizens aged 18 or older. DHS posted the portal on September 1 saying the lists were coming soon, and a June DHS memo targeted having it fully functional by September 4. EPIC sued DHS and the Social Security Administration the same day the portal appeared. At a September 25 hearing a Justice Department attorney said, "I can't tell you we won't have a live portal before the midterms," and Judge Paula Xinis ordered the government to give the court thirty days' notice before activating the portal or providing the lists. That is a notice requirement, not a bar; her ruling on whether the lists are lawful is pending. Separately, on September 25 the Supreme Court let the government use the rebuilt SAVE system while its appeal goes on, 6-3. See the card.
  • Nov 3, 2026 The $5,000 promise. On September 9 Trump promised every adult citizen a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if Republicans keep both chambers. Sen. Bernie Moreno says a bill will be ready "immediately after the November 3rd election." Officials have since floated tariffs, a not-yet-launched $5 million "Platinum Card" visa, Intel stock gains and a reconciliation bill; the cost is about $1.2 trillion or more, Congress would have to appropriate it, and the two prior dividends were never paid. Asked on September 10 whether Congress must approve it, Trump said, "we think not." On September 13 he said, "The $5,000 is going to happen 100 percent." Watch whether a bill appears, whether the White House attempts the payment without one, and whether the promise is repeated as the date nears.
  • Open threat Patel's promised arrests. The FBI director announced 2020-related arrests "coming soon" in April. No targets or crimes have been named. The threat stays open on purpose. See the card.
  • Oct–Nov 2026 An "election emergency." Trump's own former White House special counsel says the primetime address was built "to add the predicate" for declaring an emergency at election time. If one is declared, the machinery in the emergency-powers card is what it runs on. See the card.
  • Nov 3, 2026 Election Day. Asked whether he would trust the results if Republicans lose Congress, Trump said, "I will if the elections are honest." Of states that cannot count votes honestly, he said, "something else has to happen." See the card.

November 3 to January 3

After the vote

Election night does not decide who serves. Counties certify their counts, then states certify theirs, and the new House is seated on January 3. These are the steps, what to watch at each one, and the legal deadlines in ten states.

  1. Nov. 5 to Nov. 24

    Counties certify

    Each county or local board reviews its count, a step called the canvass, and certifies the result by a deadline set in state law.

    Watch for A board that refuses or delays. Courts have treated the duty as mandatory: an Arizona judge ruled in 2022 that the Cochise County board "exceeded its lawful authority in delaying the canvass," and a Georgia judge ruled in 2024 that the county role in certifying is "ministerial and mandatory." Michigan's law calls it "the ministerial, clerical, and nondiscretionary duty" of county canvassers. Voting groups counted "at least 17 attempts to interfere with certification during the 2024 election cycle alone," and every one of those elections was ultimately certified.

    See the card: 53 Election Deniers Are Running to Referee the Next Election

    NPR: Arizona's Cochise County finally certifies its election results after a court order (Dec. 1, 2022) · Georgia Recorder: Fulton judge says Georgia law requires county election officials to certify results (Oct. 15, 2024) · Michigan Compiled Laws 168.822 · Democracy Docket: How rogue counties could help Trump and throw the midterms into chaos after Election Day (Sept. 21, 2026) · NCSL: Canvass Deadlines (updated July 9, 2025)

  2. Nov. 20 to early Dec.

    States certify

    A state board or official certifies the statewide result. Most of the ten states below set a fixed date. Texas lets its secretary of state pick a day within a window, and Pennsylvania's law sets no statewide deadline.

    Watch for A state official who delays past the state's own deadline.

    NCSL: Canvass Deadlines (updated July 9, 2025) · Tex. Elec. Code ch. 67

  3. Within 30 days

    Contests

    A losing House candidate who wants to challenge the result must file notice with the House Clerk "within thirty days after the result of such election shall have been declared" (2 U.S.C. 382).

    2 U.S.C. 382: Notice of contest (Cornell LII)

  4. Jan. 3, 2027

    The new House

    The 20th Amendment ends House terms at noon on January 3, and Congress meets that day "unless they shall by law appoint a different day." The House Clerk lists as members-elect only those "whose credentials show that they were regularly elected in accordance with the laws of their States respectively, or the laws of the United States" (2 U.S.C. 26).

    Watch for Any attempt to keep a certified winner off the roll. Each House is "the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members" (Art. I, Sec. 5), so the House itself rules on contested seats.

    U.S. Constitution, Amendments 11-27 (National Archives) · 2 U.S.C. 26: Roll of Representatives-elect (GPO, U.S. Code 2024) · U.S. Constitution, transcript (National Archives)

State Counties certify by State certifies by
Arizona Nov. 19 Nov. 23 A.R.S. 16-642
Georgia Nov. 9, 5 p.m. Nov. 20 Georgia Secretary of State: 2026 Elections Calendar
Maine Nov. 5 (town returns) Nov. 23 21-A M.R.S. 711 · 21-A M.R.S. 722
Michigan Nov. 17 Nov. 23 Michigan Compiled Laws 168.822 · Michigan Compiled Laws 168.842
Nevada Nov. 13 Nov. 24 NRS 293.387 and 293.395
North Carolina Nov. 13 Nov. 24 N.C. Gen. Stat. 163-182.5
Ohio Nov. 24 Within 10 days of the last county's results Ohio Rev. Code 3505.32 · Ohio Rev. Code 3505.35
Pennsylvania Nov. 23 No date set in law Pennsylvania Department of State: 2026 General Election Calendar · NCSL: Canvass Deadlines (updated July 9, 2025)
Texas Nov. 17 Nov. 21 to Dec. 6, date set by the secretary of state Tex. Elec. Code ch. 67
Wisconsin Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Wis. Stat. 7.60 · Wis. Stat. 7.70

Dates are computed from each state's law or official 2026 calendar for an election on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and are the latest the law allows. Many counties finish sooner.

In their own words

Asked, and wouldn't rule it out

When officials have been asked directly whether armed agents, troops or emergency powers will be used around the midterms, these are the answers. Declining to rule something out is not a plan, so the last column records the denials and assurances the administration has given on the same question.

Who The question The answer Also on the record
Donald TrumpPresident · Feb. 4 NBC's Tom Llamas asked whether he would trust the results of the midterms if Republicans lose control of Congress. "I will if the elections are honest." Moments earlier, of the states that count votes: "If they can't do it honestly and it can't be done properly and timely, then something else has to happen." NBC News: Read the full transcript: President Donald Trump interviewed by 'NBC Nightly News' anchor Tom Llamas · The Independent: Trump says he will only accept the midterm results 'if the elections are honest' · See the card —
Karoline LeavittWhite House press secretary · Feb. 5 Whether ICE agents will be at polling places in November. "I can't guarantee that an ICE agent won't be around a polling location in November. There are no formal plans." IBTimes UK: 2026 Midterms Could See ICE at Polls, Leavitt Tells Press · The Hill: ICE has no plans to 'sweep polling locations' for noncitizens, Homan says · See the card Border czar Tom Homan, Sept. 13: "there is no plan for enforcement action at polling places."
Pete HegsethDefense secretary · Apr. 29 Rep. Jill Tokuda asked whether he would follow an order to deploy troops to polling places during the midterms. He did not say. Instead: "2024 – Joe Biden – troops deployed to polling locations in 15 states. Explain that one to me." CNN found that none of the 13 states that answered had sent troops to polling places. CNN (Daniel Dale): Hegseth twice made a false claim to Congress about troops being sent to voting places under Biden · AP: Senators from both parties voice criticism about Pentagon briefing on US defense strategy · See the card Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, wrote to a senator in August that there are "no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections."
Donald TrumpPresident · May Whether he would send National Guard troops or DHS agents to voting locations, as quoted in the NAACP's lawsuit. "I'd do anything necessary to make sure we have honest elections." NAACP v. Department of Homeland Security: complaint (D.D.C., September 18, 2026) · AP: Senators from both parties voice criticism about Pentagon briefing on US defense strategy · See the card Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, wrote to a senator in August that there are "no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections."
Markwayne MullinHomeland security secretary · June 14 On CNN: "Are you willing to rule out sending ICE agents?" Then: "So, you're not ruling it out?" "No, what I said is that we would only be there if a threat" arose. Then: "No, keep in mind, why would ICE be there? Because only people that should be voting there is American citizens. There shouldn't be any immigration enforcement." The Hill: Mullin says ICE 'only' deployed at midterm polls if 'threat' arises · Fox News: DHS chief Mullin refuses to rule out ICE at polls · See the card —
Donald TrumpPresident · Aug. 11 A Real America's Voice host urged him to declare a national emergency to get photo ID, proof of citizenship and limits on mail ballots if the Senate cannot pass the SAVE America Act. "Let me just say that stranger things have happened, OK? I'll leave it at that." HuffPost: Trump Entertains Plot To Declare A 'National Emergency' Over Elections · Yahoo/AOL: Trump says he's not considering declaring a national emergency ahead of midterms · See the card In late July, Trump said he was not considering declaring a national emergency ahead of the midterms.
Markwayne MullinHomeland security secretary · Sept. 1 When ICE would be at polling places. "The only reason why we would be at polling places is if there is a threat to that polling place or we're serving a warrant on someone that we have been actively tracking down." Democracy Docket: DHS chief says ICE could make arrests at polling places · See the card In the same remarks, he said agents are not there to patrol polling places.
Kash PatelFBI director · Sept. 15 Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked whether he thought sending FBI agents to the polls would be against the law. "I don't know that we can't legally do it." ABC News: Kash Patel clashes with Dems about possibly sending FBI agents to polling places · Roll Call: Patel won't rule out FBI at the polls on Election Day · See the card In the same hearing: "We will always follow the law and the guidelines."
Elbridge ColbyUnder secretary of defense for policy · Sept. 17 In a closed Senate briefing, whether he had ever discussed deploying the National Guard for voter security on Election Day. He said he had heard about such discussions but was not leading on the issue. "Never once said 'yes' or 'no,'" said Sen. Kevin Cramer, a Republican. AP: Senators from both parties voice criticism about Pentagon briefing on US defense strategy · See the card Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, wrote to a senator in August that there are "no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections."
Joshua SchopfJustice Department attorney · Sept. 25 Judge Paula Xinis asked for advance notice before the government's portal for sending states lists of citizens goes live. "I cannot say. I can't tell you we won't have a live portal before the midterms." Democracy Docket alone reported the exchange; Reuters confirmed he did not rule out activating it before the election. Democracy Docket: 'That is very concerning': Trump admin says it might release voter eligibility lists before midterms · Reuters via WIKY: Trump continues voter data push despite repeated setbacks · U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland: Order, EPIC v. USCIS, No. 8:26-cv-03457, ECF 48 · See the card Xinis then ordered 30 days' notice before the portal is activated or any list is sent.
Donald TrumpPresident · Sept. 28 TIME: "Do you plan to dispatch ICE agents to polling places in the midterms?" "Haven't thought of it." TIME: Read TIME's 'What Trump Has Built' Interview Transcript · See the card —
Donald TrumpPresident · Sept. 28 TIME: "Would you rule out declaring a state of emergency in the lead up to the midterms unless there's widespread violence in the streets?" "I don't rule anything out or in. We'll see. You mean the Insurrection Act?" Then: "No, I've never used it. I could use it." TIME: Read TIME's 'What Trump Has Built' Interview Transcript · The Hill: Trump not ruling out invoking Insurrection Act around midterms · See the card He has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act before, over protests in Los Angeles and Portland, and has not used it.

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Several of these questions already have a one-line answer on paper, like General Caine's letter. The officials asked in person have mostly declined to repeat it. A threat does not need to be carried out to keep a voter home, which is why three lawsuits now argue that refusing to rule out armed agents at the polls is itself the harm.

Predictions you may hear that we can't yet substantiate

What you may have heard

Some fears about the midterms run ahead of the record. Each one is stated here the way people put it, then set against what is documented, what stands in the way, and what would have to happen for us to report it as fact. We hold these to the same standard as a claim of voter fraud.

No evidence

“Trump will cancel or postpone the midterms.”

On the record

The fear has a source. In January Trump told Reuters, "when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election," and the White House said he was "simply joking." Asked in August and September about declaring an election emergency, he said "stranger things have happened" and "I don't rule anything out or in." The emergency proposals on the record would change the rules of the vote, such as voter ID and mail ballots, not its date, and we have found no reported order, draft or bill that would move it. One state did stop a federal election midway: Louisiana's governor suspended its U.S. House primaries in May to redraw the map, discarding ballots already cast. Those voters, he said, "will vote again in November."

A Draft Executive Order Declaring an 'Election Emergency' · Louisiana Cancels Its Own Primaries in the Middle of Voting

What stands in the way

Federal law sets the date: "The Tuesday next after the 1st Monday in November, in every even numbered year" (2 U.S.C. 7). The Constitution gives the rules for congressional elections to state legislatures and to Congress (Art. I, Sec. 4), not to the president. The 20th Amendment ends House terms "at noon on the 3d day of January" whether or not anyone has been elected, so a delay would keep nobody in office. The Congressional Research Service: "there is no current constitutional authority residing in the President of the United States, nor the executive branch of government, to postpone, cancel, or reschedule elections for federal office in the various states."

What would have to happen

A presidential order or proclamation that tries to change when or whether the election is held, or a bill in Congress to move it.

Reporting Democracy Docket: Trump: 'We shouldn't even have an election' · Democracy Docket: White House claims Trump was 'joking' when he talked about canceling election · HuffPost: Trump Entertains Plot To Declare A 'National Emergency' Over Elections · TIME: Read TIME's 'What Trump Has Built' Interview Transcript · HuffPost: Jeff Landry says Louisiana voters whose primary ballots were discarded 'will vote again' · ACLU: Civil rights groups file emergency challenge to Louisiana governor's attempt to suspend election already underway
Law, analysis and fact-checks 2 U.S.C. 7: Time of election (Cornell LII) · U.S. Constitution, transcript (National Archives) · U.S. Constitution, Amendments 11-27 (National Archives) · Congressional Research Service: Postponement and Rescheduling of Elections to Federal Office (RL32623)

Possible, not documented

“He'll declare martial law, or use the Insurrection Act to stop the vote.”

On the record

Asked by TIME on September 28 whether he would rule out a state of emergency before the midterms, Trump said, "I don't rule anything out or in," brought up the Insurrection Act himself, and said, "I've never used it. I could use it." National Guard troops are scheduled to stay on the streets of Washington, D.C., through Inauguration Day 2029. No invocation of the Insurrection Act and no order sending troops to polling places has been documented. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, wrote to a senator in August that there are "no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections."

A Draft Executive Order Declaring an 'Election Emergency' · The National Guard Is Scheduled in the Capital Through the Next Two Elections · Trump Promises an 'Election Integrity Army' in Every State

What stands in the way

No law lets a president declare martial law. The Brennan Center: "There are no existing federal statutes that authorize the president to declare martial law," and "The Insurrection Act does not authorize martial law." That Act lets a president use troops "to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion" (10 U.S.C. 252), and first requires a proclamation ordering insurgents "to disperse and retire peaceably to their abodes within a limited time" (10 U.S.C. 254). It says nothing about elections. Separately, bringing "any troops or armed men" to a polling place is a federal crime "unless such force be necessary to repel armed enemies of the United States" (18 U.S.C. 592).

What would have to happen

A proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254, which must come before troops are used, or an order sending federal troops or federalized Guard into a state near Election Day.

Reporting TIME: Read TIME's 'What Trump Has Built' Interview Transcript · The Hill: Trump not ruling out invoking Insurrection Act around midterms · NPR: Trump's National Guard deployment in D.C. has been extended until 2029 · AP: Senators from both parties voice criticism about Pentagon briefing on US defense strategy
Law, analysis and fact-checks Brennan Center for Justice: Martial Law, Explained · Brennan Center for Justice: The Insurrection Act, Explained · 10 U.S.C. 252: Use of militia and armed forces to enforce Federal authority (Cornell LII) · 10 U.S.C. 254: Proclamation to disperse (Cornell LII) · 18 U.S.C. 592: Troops at polls (Cornell LII)

No evidence of that purpose

“Hegseth is purging the generals to set up a military coup.”

On the record

The purge is real. Hegseth has fired or blocked the promotions of "more than 80 generals and admirals," about 10 percent of the military's top officers, the New York Times reported. The reasons on the record point elsewhere: the Army secretary resigned after objecting to Hegseth "firing the generals who were responsible" for his modernization plans. And in August the leaders of three combatant commands and the Chief of Naval Operations formally objected, in writing, to orders extending the Iran war. We have found no reporting that ties the firings to the election.

What stands in the way

The officers themselves are bound by law. It is a federal crime for "an officer or member of the Armed Forces" to prevent "any qualified voter" from voting or to interfere with an election officer's duties (18 U.S.C. 593). The Posse Comitatus Act bars using the military "to execute the laws" except where the Constitution or Congress expressly allows it (18 U.S.C. 1385).

What would have to happen

An officer removed or disciplined for refusing an election-related order, or a written order placing troops at or near polling places.

Reporting The New York Times (via The Seattle Times): Hegseth targets 7 more officers as his frustrated Army secretary quits · Al Jazeera: US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll submits resignation, media reports say · NPR: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after clashes with Defense Secretary Hegseth · The Washington Post (via The Spokesman-Review): Military leaders warn Hegseth against extending Iran war operations
Law, analysis and fact-checks 18 U.S.C. 593: Interference by armed forces (Cornell LII) · 18 U.S.C. 1385: Use of Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force as posse comitatus (Cornell LII)

No evidence

“Musk will help rig the voting machines.”

On the record

The fear draws on a real remark. The day before his 2025 inauguration, Trump said Musk "knows those computers better than anybody, all those computers, those vote counting computers, and we ended up winning Pennsylvania, like, in a landslide." Snopes confirmed the quote and found no evidence he meant the win was due to Musk. Claims that Musk's Starlink network was used to steal the 2024 election were checked by AP, which called them "unfounded": election officials said their voting equipment does not use Starlink and is not connected to the internet. Musk's documented role in the midterms is money. His super PAC, which spent more than $260 million to help elect Trump in 2024, is back with a door-knocking and advertising push for Republicans. We have found no reporting or official finding that Musk, his companies, DOGE or America PAC had access to the equipment that counts or reports votes.

Musk Revives America PAC With a Planned $100 Million Turnout Operation, Coordinating With Trump's Political Team · A Bipartisan Commission Finds Musk's $1 Million Voter Checks Likely Broke the Bribery Law · Georgia's Election Board Reprimands Musk's America PAC for Mailing Prefilled Absentee Ballot Applications

What stands in the way

Most votes cast in November will leave a paper record. In Verified Voting's 2026 survey, 69.5 percent of registered voters live where most voters mark paper ballots by hand, which the group calls "a tangible, tamper-evident and auditable record," and 1.3 percent live where every voter uses a machine with no paper record.

What would have to happen

Documented access by Musk, his companies or DOGE to equipment or systems that count or report votes.

Reporting Axios (via Yahoo): Exclusive: Musk plans massive push for GOP in midterms · Newsweek: Map Shows States Elon Musk's Midterm Money Machine Could Impact Most
Law, analysis and fact-checks Snopes (via Yahoo News): Fact Check: Yes, Trump said Musk knows vote-counting computers 'better than anybody' · AP: FACT FOCUS: Election officials knock down Starlink vote rigging conspiracy theories · Verified Voting: The Verifier, national data for 2026

No evidence

“They'll stage an attack to justify a crackdown.”

On the record

We know of no evidence for this, and we will not speculate about it. What is documented is the use of real conditions, stretched: the "crime emergency" that put the National Guard on Washington's streets was declared while violent crime in the city was at a 30-year low, and it is now scheduled to run through January 2029.

The National Guard Is Scheduled in the Capital Through the Next Two Elections · The Emergency-Powers Track: NSPM-7, 137 Statutory Powers, and the PEADs

What stands in the way

The limits in the two items above apply however an emergency begins: no law authorizes martial law, and troops at a polling place are a crime except to repel armed enemies of the United States.

What would have to happen

We would report any emergency declaration and the basis it gives, and say plainly when the basis is exaggerated, as we have with the D.C. deployment.

Reporting NPR: Trump's National Guard deployment in D.C. has been extended until 2029 · The Hill: National Guard deployment in DC extended until next presidential inauguration

Partly documented

“ICE will arrest people waiting in line to vote.”

On the record

Officials will not rule out agents at polling places (see the table above), and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has said agents could be there if they are "serving a warrant on someone that we have been actively tracking down." A lawsuit by Denver and voting groups cites reports of agents at or near polling places in San Antonio, Ventura County and Syracuse this year. Border czar Tom Homan says "there is no plan for enforcement action at polling places." We have found no documented arrest of a voter at a polling place.

'You're Damn Right We're Going to Have ICE Surround the Polls' · ICE Agents Visit a Poll Worker at Her Job on Election Day · The FBI Director Won't Commit to Keeping Agents Away From the Polls

What stands in the way

Bringing "any troops or armed men" to a polling place is a federal felony unless needed "to repel armed enemies of the United States" (18 U.S.C. 592), and intimidating anyone "for the purpose of interfering with the right of such other person to vote" is a federal crime (18 U.S.C. 594). Three federal lawsuits ask the courts to keep armed federal agents away from polling places.

What would have to happen

Armed federal agents posted at polling places on Election Day, or an arrest of a voter at one.

Reporting Democracy Docket: DHS chief says ICE could make arrests at polling places · Colorado Sun: Denver, Latino groups sue to keep ICE agents away from voting places · The Hill: ICE has no plans to 'sweep polling locations' for noncitizens, Homan says · NAACP v. Department of Homeland Security: complaint (D.D.C., September 18, 2026) · Democracy Docket: Democrats sue Trump admin to keep armed agents from polls during midterms
Law, analysis and fact-checks 18 U.S.C. 592: Troops at polls (Cornell LII) · 18 U.S.C. 594: Intimidation of voters (Cornell LII)

Our take — opinion, not reporting

Most of these fears come from people alarmed by the record above, and some of them may yet come true. We hold them to the same standard as a fraud claim anyway, because a prediction that fails costs the same credibility as a claim that falls apart. There is a second reason. Telling people the outcome is already fixed does the work of the effort this page documents: it keeps them home.

Before you leave this page

Protect the vote

Documentation only matters if it moves you to act. None of this requires a side. It requires that you can vote, that you know your rights, and that you can check this record for yourself.

01

Make sure you can vote

Confirm your registration, or register, at vote.gov, the official federal portal. Check your state's deadlines, ID rules, and mail-ballot options at CanIVote.org, run by the bipartisan National Association of Secretaries of State.

The rules are changing this cycle, see the SAVE Act and mail-ballot cards above. Check again close to the election.

02

If someone tries to stop you

Voter intimidation and being wrongly turned away are illegal. Call the nonpartisan Election Protection hotline, staffed by volunteer lawyers:

866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683)
888-VE-Y-VOTA en español (888-839-8682)

Report problems to your state or county election office. If you are in line when polls close, stay, you have the right to vote.

03

Check our work, then share it

Every card on this page links to its sources. Don't take our word for it, read them and decide for yourself.

Then send someone the receipt, not just the headline: open any entry and use Copy link to this entry to share that specific record.

Standards

Method

What gets included

  • Actions by Trump, his administration, or allies he directed, endorsed, or enabled, aimed at the machinery, rules, personnel, or legitimacy of the 2026 midterms.
  • Not included: ordinary partisan politics, campaigning, or policies we merely disagree with.
  • Statements count when they are threats, directives, or admissions — and they are labeled "On the Record," not treated as completed acts.

Sourcing rules

  • Every card links to its sources; nearly all claims carry two or more independent outlets, including right-leaning outlets when they covered the story.
  • Single-sourced items are noted as such in the card.
  • We use the most precise language the evidence supports — "blocked" is not "killed," "reported" is not "proven."
  • Corrections are made openly, not quietly.

One standard for everyone

  • A claim that an election was stolen requires evidence, no matter who makes it or who it benefits.
  • That is the standard by which 60+ courts, Trump's own attorney general, and his own cybersecurity agency rejected the 2020 fraud claims. It is the same standard we would apply to any fraud claim about 2024 or 2026, including from people who oppose Trump.
  • This page documents actions that are themselves documented — orders signed, words spoken, suits filed — not statistical inferences about secret manipulation.

Flag criteria

  • Unprecedented is applied only where the cited officials, experts, or reporting say an action has no equivalent, and the card states that basis.
  • Ruled Unlawful means a court has ruled against the action itself.
  • Prohibited by Law means the action conflicts with explicit statute or a standing court order.
  • Constitutional Conflict means the action collides with constitutional text or the Constitution's allocation of power, per the litigation and experts cited. Courts may not have ruled yet, and we say so.
  • The trust counter in the header totals entries, 7 from the 2020–2025 prehistory plus 14 from the 2026 record, in which Trump or his administration publicly asserted that American elections are rigged, fraudulent, or illegitimate, or acted publicly to delegitimize a result. One entry can bundle many statements, so the count is conservative.

Predictions we can't substantiate

  • No evidence: nothing on the record supports the prediction.
  • Possible, not documented: the legal means or a stated willingness exist, but no step toward it has been documented.
  • Partly documented: some of it has happened; the rest has not.
  • Statutes and the Constitution are quoted from the official text, and every "what stands in the way" line links to it.

Status definitions

  • In Effect — happened or currently operating.
  • In Court — operative or contested, with litigation pending.
  • Blocked — stopped by courts, or abandoned after failing.
  • Threatened — announced or planned, not yet executed.
  • On the Record — a statement, directive, or admission in the speaker's own words.